NEXT IRANIAN MAJLES COULD TRANSFORM THE MUSLIM WORLD
By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor
TEHRAN 17TH Feb. (IPS) As millions of Iranians goes to the polls on Friday to chose the sixth 290 seats Majles (parliament) of the 20 years-old Islamic Republic, most independent analysts and observers predicts a "three layers" legislative divided more or less evenly between the conservatives and the reformist, with an equal number of "independents" that would become the dominant fraction.
But considering the fact that the so-called "independents" usually side with the reformists, the odds are that the next Majles would be more inclined to help President Mohammad Khatami in implementing the reforms promised when elected in 23 May 1997.
Short of possible surprise, a "three layers" Majles means less conservatives and more reformists, in other words, a victory for the camp of the moderates who supports limiting the power of theocrats in favour of technocrats.
This new parliament could also announce some surprises, particularly when the deputies are called to elect the new Speaker.
Former president ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani entered the race with the hope to sit at this Chair in order to place himself somewhere between the President and the leader, ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i who is more and more lamed and contested in his functions, both at religious and political levels.
But almost all analysts and political experts agreed that by doing so, he may have finished his political career as well as, in any case, the future Majles would never be the same as the one he used to preside over when he was Speaker.
His decision to run for the future Majles was probably his biggest mistake, showed how stranger he had become with the realities of the nation, the transformation of the Iranian society since the victory of Mr. Khatami.
Hours after he announced his decision, he had to face a barrage of dramatic charges, including his role in the assassination of hundreds of Iranian dissidents both at home and outside, his economic mismanagement, his nepotism, favoritism, the generalised corruption and the staggering fortune he and his family amassed.
According to an American specialised magazine, the Rafsanjani family represents the 49th fortune in the world, but many Iranians beleive the "dynasty" is much richer, as, according to many businessmen contacted by Iran Press Service, more than ninety per cent of the big, lucrative business clinched in Iran are done with the participation of at least one member of the "King Akbar" family.
Mr. Rafsanjani is unpopular for many reasons, the most important and palpable one is because of the role he played in convincing Mr. Khameneh'i to order to Judiciary to send the former Interior Minister turned successful newspaper publisher Abdollah Nouri to prison at any cost.
For this reason, the Islamic Iran Participation Front, the pro-Khatami faction of the 23 May Front which is let by Dr. Mohammad Reza Khatami, the younger brother of the President adamantly refused from the outset to enlist Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani as a candidate at the cost of dividing the reformist front, with the other major faction, the Reconstruction Servants Party placing the former president on top of all its electoral lists, thus joining the conservatives.
"One does not understand why the pro-Khatami reformists should vote for Mr. Rafsanjani as the next Speaker while they have refused to enlist him. The Servants say Mr. Rafsanjani makes a logic Speaker because he had occupied the job in the past and has experience in leading the Majles, but they forget that the IIPF have hojatoleslam Mehdi Karubi, a former Speaker on their ballot list. Besides, there is also an outsider in the 39 years-old Dr Alireza Nouri, the younger brother of the jailed Abdollah Nouri who also could make a very good candidate for this important position", political analysts observed.
In one of its recent editorial, the English-language "Iran Daily" that is published by the official news agency IRNA predicted that not only the sixth Majlis would be "fairly divided among different political groups in a fair and democratic manner", but also would "redefine Iran’s political, economic, and cultural settings.
"Tomorrow’s election is important due to several reasons:
"1- The factional configuration of next Majlis would be indicative of the people’s taste in electing their legislators in a "modern civil society".
"2- The first Iranian election on the dawn of the third millennium will not only bear a message of peace, friendship and global co-operation, but it would also show the Iranians readiness for dialogue among civilisation.
"3- This historical day will show the extent of our nation’s vitality and vibrancy and will demonstrate the people’s determination to be actively presented in the democratic process.
"4- Tomorrow’s ballot will indicate the degree of people’s support for their president and his programs. It will also allow a limp at the future of reforms and political development in Iran.
"5- Tallying the people’s votes for the sixth Majlis elections would also have its own message for all the political groups who practice democracy. These groups will soon find out the extent of national support for them and their policies.
"6- This election will clearly speak out to all political observers. Foreign countries will consider their future diplomatic relations with Iran by studying the breakdown of the votes.
"7- tomorrow’s elections, the most comprehensive in Iranian history, will show that different political groups can take part in elections. The Majlis seats can be divided among different political groups in a fair and democratic manner.
"8- eventually, the configuration of people’s votes and the elections will portray the cultural, economic and political path of the coming four days. Hence, the Khatami Administration will have the opportunity to consider a more efficient, co-ordinated and integrated cabinet by relying on a more effective and sophisticated Majlis, which would be closer to the people’s choice of may 23, 1997.
"This election can and should bring Iran’s political, economic and cultural atmosphere out of haziness and ambiguity, and for all individuals to support Khatami, who has become the symbol of "national unity". Such support can downsize the radicals, left behind from may 23, 1997 presidential elections, curb the excessive enthusiasm of post-may 23, and arrange a timetable for future co-operation and political moderation.
In fact, analysts observes, the next parliament, even if not fully controlled and dominated by the reformists, would allow Mr. Khatami to form a new government to his own liking, since the present one is made mostly by ministers "imposed" on him either by the leader, like the Intelligence or the Foreign Affairs or by the Rafsanjani faction that supported his candidacy in the presidential race of May 1997.
As observed by the "Iran Daily", top on its agenda, the sixth Majles must address several sensitive issues, including the women's rights, institutionalisation of political, social and cultural freedoms, deep and much needed economic reforms, curbing, if not dismantling conservatives-controlled pressure groups in order to create the political stability and serenity necessary to attract foreign investments.
"Our dress is not as important as our basic rights and equality with men", observed Mrs. Jamileh Kadivar, a candidate running on the pro-Khatami ticket while her husband, the Islamic Guidance Minister Ata'ollah Mohajerani is a well known Rafsanjani "protégé". "This is what we are going to correct at the next parliament", she added.
"There are many inequalities in our society. Not only between men and women, the most flagrant, but also in other fields. We shall improve political and social freedom", echoed Mrs. A'zam Taleqani, another prominent female candidate enlisted by the IIPF.
The outcome of Friday ballots would carry an important message for all Muslim societies as well, as, in case the reformists gain the upper hand, the reforms introduced in Islam by Iranian theologians, both clerics and civilians of the caliber of hojatoleslam Mohsen Kadivar, the brother of Mrs. Jamileh, hojatoleslam Abdollah Nouri, the deforcked hojatoleslam Sa'idzadeh, the philosopher Adbolkarim Soroush and above all, the grand ayatollah Hosseinali Montazeri, to co-founder of the Islamic Republic and many other who are either in jail or under house arrest or harassed by the conservative hard liners would reverberates throughout the Muslim world.
That explain why this Iranian election is covered so largely by the international press, with a coverage comparable only with that of the great US Satan. ENDS ELCTIONS CAMPAIGNING 17200