REFORMISTS VICTORY IS A TWO-EDGED SWORD FOR MR. KHATAMI
By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor
TEHRAN 22 Feb. (IPS) The victory of the reformists in the Majles (parliamentary) elections being almost confirmed, attentions are already focused on President Mohammad Khatami himself and his performances in the remaining months before the next presidential elections due in May 2001.
The latest results published by the Interior Ministry shows that out of 190 candidates having made their way into the next 290 seats Majles, 140 of them belong to the 26th May Grand Coalition that supports Mr. Khatami.
According to the Ministry, more than 83 per cent of the 40 millions voters went to the polls, the highest ever scored in all elections held under the Islamic Republic, highest even from the May 1997 presidential elections.
Deciphering the outcome of the exercise, political analysts said voters send the same message as in the Executive race, meaning their rejection of the present system that is based on Velayat e Faqih, or Guardianship, in which a man supposed to be the representative of God and the Tutor of the population stands above all laws, with all powers converging to him and emanating from him.
"In presidential elections of May 1997, people voted for the relatively unknown Mr. Khatami in order to express their rejection of the ruling system symbolised by ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i, the leader of the regime and represented by hojatoleslam Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, the candidate of the conservative clerical establishment", noted Mr. Ahmad Salamatian, a prominent Paris-based political analyst.
Many young voters, many of them first time electors, interviewed at random by Iran Press Service, confirmed their firm opposition with the present system.
Asked why she had not voted for Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani, a young law student said because he represented the "old, sclerosed guard unfit for a modern and young society", stressing immediately that she had no problem with an Islamic Republic if the regime would respect her freedoms "as a human being fully equal with men".
The fate of the former president was still not clear by the time this article was written. According to some sources, ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani was ranked in the 38th position, far behind reformist candidates who had grabbed at least ten seats out of the 30 allocated to the Capital.
Her daughter, Fa'ezeh Hehmi elected number two in the past Legislative elections lost her chances, being replaced by Mrs. Jamileh Kadivar, the sister of hojatoleslam Mohsen Kadivar, an outspoken cleric philosopher dubbed as Iran's Martin Luther and jailed because of his reformist ideas. A journalist, Mrs. Kadivar is married to Islamic Guidance Minister Ata'ollah Mohajerani, the "bete noire" of the conservatives.
In it's first comments and analysis of the post-election situation, the independent and reformist press pointed out that the triumph of the 23th May camp would present President Khatami with an important, if not vital challenge.
Until now, the general impression was that the conservatives who control all "strategic" positions, like the Armed Forces, the Judiciary, the Radio and Television, the security and intelligence services key, the foreign policy, the Legislative and the Oil have systematically prevented Mr. Khatami implement his promised reforms.
Based on that principle, the people, including the women and the young who brought Mr. Khatami to power would also excuse him for his leniency, his constant bowing to the leader on every major issues when laws had been ignored by the conservatives, when moderates would be sent to prison and independent press shut down by the Judiciary and controversial tribunals acting on orders from Mr. Khameneh'i.
"This period of grace that lasted for the past three years is over. Enjoying a Majles almost tailor-made, Mr. Khatami has one year to act and do it quickly. From now on, he is expected to stand firm whenever Constitution is overruled by the leader, or reforms voted by the Majles are opposed by the Council of the Guardians, or the law is derided by the conservatives-controlled pressure groups or", pointed out Dr. Karim Lahiji, the Paris-based Head the Iranian Human Rights League and Deputy President of the International Federation of Human Rights Leagues.
People's expectations from Mr. Khatami are not that much, but not easy to materialises in the short span of time he has in front of him: Told simply, these are, by order of importance, creation of job for the millions of unemployed, most of them young ones, improving the appalling economic situation of the country by encouraging the private sector, fighting daily price increase, limiting the sprawling bureaucracy, removing inequalities, restoring law and order, dismantling all pressure groups, fighting wide spread and generalised corruption, dismantling some of the tentacular foundations, implementing political and individual freedoms, including creation of political parties and unions, introducing much needed social and cultural reforms, ending anarchy in the rogue security and intelligence services, curtailing some religious-based intrusions in people's private life, safeguarding religious and ethnic minorities rights and above all, ordering all administrations, including the Judiciary and the revolutionary guards, to act within the limits of their respective jurisdictions and responsibilities.
If Mr. Khatami succeeds in materialising some of these demands, even in limited form, he would secure a second presidential term, but if not, and having no more pretext to explain his failure, he could say "a Dieu Presidency" and go back to the National Library to study the Misery And Splendour Of A Popular President. ENDS ELECTIONS EXPECTATIONS 20200