MORTAR ATTACK TARGETS THE COMING ELECTIONS: ANALYSTS

TEHRAN 6TH Feb. (IPS) The explosion of between five to seven mortars Saturday night in one of Tehran's most "strategic" administrative areas that comprises the parliament, the offices of the President, the leader and the Expediency Council among others is seen by reformist as an attempt to postpone the forthcoming parliamentary elections the moderates are hoping to win.

"Last night explosions could justify the proclamation of a state of emergency, the postponement of the elections and passing anti-reform laws by the present conservatives-controlled Majles (parliament), speculated one leading analyst in Tehran asking for anonymity.

Eyewitnesses said several explosions were heard in the formerly "Kakh" area situated in the posh, traditional central-western part the capital, with one of them falling in the presidential offices courtyard and the others in the surrounding streets, shattering offices and wounding five passengers and killing one worker employed in a printing shop opposite the parliament.

In communiqués faxed to international news agencies, the Baghdad-based, Iraqi-financed, trained and supported Mujahedeen Khalq Organisation (MKO) claimed the responsibility, saying they severely hit and damaged the offices of both the president Mohammad Khatami and the leader, ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i.

Latter, in telephone calls, the organisation made it clear that the main target of the terrorist operation was the head quarters of the leader of the Islamic Republic and not to kill the president.

But many sources contacted in Tehran by Iran Press Service doubted the authenticity of the claim, saying the explosions could well be the work of elements in the Intelligence Ministry or the revolutionary guards with the aim to push the authorities to proclaim a state of emergency.

For months, the reformist press is talking about a "plot" by the conservative to bring the cancellation of the 18th February elections they are certain to loose.

The Saturday night explosions took place barely 12 days before the elections and while the conservative forces are noisily demonstrating against a cartoon that portrayed a prominent hard line ayatollah as a crocodile that is shedding tears while crushing a journalist under its fat belly.

The cartoon, published in the pro-Rafsanjani daily "Azad" was a reference to ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi's recent "revelations" that a former CIA Director had come to Tehran with a suite case loaded with money he distributed among reformist and moderate press and publishers.

Because of his harsh tongue, his virulent attacks on the reformists press and moderate forces, his call for outright violence and unconsidered declarations, the cleric, who is also supported by the leader, is nicknamed by Iranians as "Temsah-Yazdi", meaning Crocodile-Yazdi.

"No matter who, the MKO or the Intelligence Ministry, carried last night operation, the result is the same: that of encouraging violence at a time that the forces of moderation do their best to avoid confrontation with the ruling conservative establishment in order to gain control of the next Majles and help Mr. Khatami go faster in implementing democratic reforms", pointed out the analyst.

This view was shared by many ordinary Iranians who, pointing out to the fact that the area that was hit Saturday night is a highly restricted and guarded zone, told IPS they doubted if the mortars were not shot by the Intelligence Ministry blaming the attack on the MKO knowing well that the organisation would gladly accept it as it creates good and much needed propaganda for them. ENDS EXPLOSIONS 6200