ISRAEL MIGHT EVACUATE SOUTH LEBANON BEFORE JULY 2000
METULLA (AT ISRAELI, SYRIAN AND LEBANESE BORDERS) 8TH Feb (IPS)
By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor
The roar of Israeli jet fighters flying over on their way to Lebanon, sound of nearby detonations and loudspeakers inviting the inhabitant to go to shelters shattered the silence and the serenity of this little Israeli town situated right at the junction of borders between Israel, Syria and Lebanon that flared in violence once again following recent successful operations of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah against both Israeli and South Lebanese Army's (SLA) positions.
In less than ten days, the Lebanese Shi'a organisation that is trained, supported, equipped, financed and armed by the Islamic Republic under the protection and with the collaboration of Syria assassinated the number two man in the SLA in his residence in the Israeli occupied security zone, mounted two attacks against Israeli positions and patrols, killing at least six soldiers and wounding an equal number.
In retaliation, Israel bombed early Tuesday morning two power plants in Beirut and in Tripoli as well as the military Head Quarters of the Hezballah in the Syrian controlled region of Ba'albak.
After the last mortar attack of Hezballah against an Israeli patrol that killed one soldier and wounded seven other near the Karkoum outpost, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, on an official visit in Jordan to commemorate the first anniversary of the death of King Hussein, wowed that Israel would "strike hard at those who attacks it", warning Hezballah that it will pay a "heavy price for attacks on Israeli soldiers".
But analysts in Israel said unless Israel shows more muscle, one should expect more mortar and Katyusha attacks against both Israeli positions in the security zone and into the northern Israeli cities like Metulla or Kyriat Shmona, the largest Israeli town in this region, close to the Lebanese border.
According to most Israeli political and military experts, recent Hezballah's operations against the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and the SLA shows that the organisation has received new arms and probably Iranian military experts.
Writing in the influential daily "Ha'aretz", Ze'ev Schiff, one of Israel's best known military expert said Hezballah has received weapons from Iran, with the aim of "preparing it for a spate of several weeks of intensive fighting in Southern Lebanon.
However, he observed, the accelerated pace of arms shipments would be impossible without Damascus authorisation and blessing.
The shipments, which include arms, equipment and ammunition, are usually flown from Iran to Damascus and from there into Lebanon by truck, where Hezballah disperse them in storehouses situated in various parts of Southern Lebanon.
"Israel has not yet succeeded in hitting these storehouses or intercepting the shipments en route from Damascus to Hezballah destination", Mr. Schiff observed.
The last attack of the organisation shocked the Israeli public opinion as television was showing graphic shots from badly wounded young soldiers and rescuers being fired on by mortar and Katyusha rockets.
In an unusual statement, the IDF spokesman expressed outrage at the coverage of the carnage by Israeli television stations, saying "there is no journalistic achievement, only a lack of consideration for the soldiers and their families".
IDF officers at the scene said the attack was "massive and accurate"
Ron Ben Ishay, a respected Israeli military journalist covering for the mass circulation daily "Yediot Ahoronot" said the accuracy of the attacks and the weapons used by Hezballah shows that the organisation has received new training by Iranian military experts.
Quoting high ranking IDF officers in the region, the paper said a very well equipped reconnaissance unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has upgraded dramatically the striking potential of the Hezballah", adding that in recent months, Iran has shipped important quantities of weapons directly to Beirut destined for Hezbollah.
While touring northern Israeli towns and villages and visiting the inhabitants in shelters, Prime Minister Barak promised Israel would do all it could to guarantee their safety against attacks from the Hezballah.
Tension between Israel and Hezballah escaltes at a time that peace negotiations with both Syria and the Palestinian Authority are in deadlock and Israeli Prime Minister Barak's popularity decreases rapidly.
Though most of the Israeli political personalities, including Mr. Ariel Sharon, the leader of the main opposition party Likud have supported the bombing of power plants in Beirut, but the Minister for the Police said considering that the Hezballah has Iran and Syria at its head, "one can not speak with the heads but attack the tail", confirming the view that there could be no lasting solution in this part of the borders without having it negotiated with Syria.
As like in the past, Israel's bombing of Lebanese power plants and infrastructure in retaliation for attacks from Hezballah was condemned largely by the Arab world and Europe but "understood" by Washington, there are more people in Israel genuinely thinking that Syrian president Hafez Asad does not want peace with Israel.
Sources close to Mr. Barak hinted Tuesday that last ten days events have pushed the Israeli Prime Minister to "soften" his stand on plans to withdraw from the security zone by July 2000.
"The Prime Minister has said he prefers a withdrawal by agreement, but he has always said that if by April, it does not look like an agreement is in the works, he would re-evaluate. It might turn out that the reevaluation needs to come sooner", said one Israeli official quoted by the right wing "Jerusalem Post".
There is no doubt that an Israel evacuation of the security zone in Southern Lebanon would be regarded as a great victory for both the Hezballah movement and the Iranian regime that supported it but at the same time deprive Damascus from an important bargain and pressure card against Israel.
But Mr. Barak believe that Israel should not present an ultimatum to Syria and make the renewal of negotiation with Damascus conditional on a cease-fire in Lebanon. ENDS ISRAEL HEZBALLAH 8200