PART ONE: POLITICAL TR

IN IRAN 

BY BAQER MO'IN* 
 The presidential elections in May, in which some thirty million Iranians voted, was the most significant event in Iran since the (Islamic) revolution (of 1979) itself. In fact, more people participated in this election than in the revolutionary process itself. Despite the selection of candidates by a non-elected body, the vote too place in a fair manner. This is an indication of self-confidence on the part if the system and a degree of maturity in the overall political discourse. 

Furthermore, what we are witnessing is the gradual emergence of a dynamic young segment of the  population which had higher expectations and seek a better life in this world - such as education, job, housing. 
 Much to the displeasure of the leaders who feel more comfortable with an approving, obedient and emotional mob, these young men and women see themselves as participants with their own opinions. They have lived with the slogans of the revolution, such as « Islam, freedom, justice and independence » and have experienced the working of those institutions set up in the republic as its embodiment. They have attempted, at the first given opportunity, to re-examine the much abused and tired of the slogans and have shown willingness to seize every opportunity to make them accountable and more relevant to their own lives. 
 Therefore, the election of President (Mohammad) Khatami could be seen as the first statement by this generation, their desire for change ad ultimately the democratisation of the society in Iran. Not an easy task. 
 Khatami's mandate would have been enough in any Western democracy to empower him to run the country according to electoral pledges made. But not within the framework of the Iranian Constitution where many non-elected bodies can undermine the elected ones. What are Khatami's pledges? He promised that as president he would work internally to implement the constitutional provisions in order for Iran to have a more tolerant and lawful society; ensure that legal political parties were allowed to operate and freedom of association and speech would be respected according to Constitution. He has already taken some measures in easing the censorship of books and films and has given permission for publication of Iran's first women daily Zan (Woman) to go ahead. 
 His promise to ensure equal opportunity for women in all spheres of life is gradually but slowly being fulfilled. He failed to appoint a woman minister, must likely because he felt the Majlis (Parliament) would not approve. However, he has appointed a woman as Vice-president and two Deputy ministers; appointments which do not require the approval of the Majlis. 
 Women have been offered more sporting facilities. Moreover, less strict interpretation of Islam would benefit women. What is even more encouraging is the struggle of women themselves which has made some impact on the conservative Judiciary. Nearly one hundred women have been appointed in the Judicial profession, although no woman judge as yet. 
 Making foreign  policy is the domain of the Supreme Leader in consultation with the Expediency Council in which the president and (some of) his ministers play a role. However, it is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs which is in charge of implementing those policies. Khatami's government has responded to the goodwill of those who welcomed his election and had entered into a kind of constructive dialogue to ease tension - Iran's Arab neighbours are a case in point. 
 On the difficult issue of improving relations with the West, what is more important is that Khatami rejects the inevitability of the so-called « clash of civilisations ». he believes that the Islamic world needs to understand the philosophies and the essence of Western culture in order to pose the right questions to address Muslim's present state of decay. As a teacher of politics in a university in Tehran, he encouraged his students to study thoroughly to understand the liberal tradition in western civilisation. Therefore, he is as much against parroting the West as rejecting it as whole….. 
 For Khomeiny, gaining and maintaining political power guaranteed the survival of Islam. For Khatami, what could lead to the creation of an Islamic society is the development of political thought and civil society. 

 The conservative are not are not very keen to hear any of these terms. For them, any reference to democracy, liberalism and civil society is a deviation from the true path of Islam. In fact, their attack on the concept of civil society is paramount. They would only like to see, as they put it, a « religious society » as opposed to a civil society. In fact, the arena of conflict in Iran is the cultural one. The conservatives are challenged politically, religiously and culturally. Pressure to open up the closed shop of religious interpretation is building up from within the clerical circle itself. Young theologians are talking about new reading of the old texts and they put as much emphasis on social, cultural and artistic issues in jurisprudence as the conservative put on prayer, fasting and in enjoining the good and forbidding evil…. 
 Khatami's success in pushing his cabinet through Majlis, especially his robust defence of his ministers of (Islamic) Culture and Interior televised across the country, boosted his image as a man who stands by his words. Khatami is well aware that the conservatives - with their rigid interpretation of Islam and support for a paternalistic, centralised and semi-authoritarian religious state, have lost the support of the younger generation who have no time for their long winded sermons. Therefore Khatami has been setting the tone on how to communicate with the increasingly alienated young generation…… 
 Khatami's weakness in not having a political party become more obvious as the conservatives regroup to challenge his authority. The combination of conservative clergy with their allies in the Bazaar and the state institutions will form a formidable bloc. Led by ayatollah (Mohammad Reza) Mahdavi Kani and Speaker (Ali Akbar) Nateq Nuri, they enjoy the support of a large network of clergy across the country. 
 It is, however, their friends in the Bazaar who are feared most, for they have an affective organisational ability and are familiar with campaigning tactics. The most active amongst them is the Coalition of Islamic Missions, which has been on the  Iranian scene for over thirty years. The Coalition is even against the term "Islamic Republic", preferring the term "Islamic State (hokumat eslami) whose constitution would be the holy Koran. 
They have friends among the Basij volunteers and the Judiciary system and their association with the Ansar-e Hezbollah. This group has experience in disrupting meetings, intimidating women and going so far as burning book shops. Their newspapers are the battleground for verbal abuse, libellous statements and violation of personal integrity. Khatami's emphasis on the ban on all unlawful actions has not prevented the Basij volunteers  from disrupting meetings and musical concerts. It has prompted many calls on Khatami to act with firmness. But Khatami does not yet have the tools to deal with the mob. The former Minister of Interior, who was a member of the conservative faction, was directly in charge of all disciplinary forces by Khatami's Minister of Interior has not been delegated with the similar responsibility by Khameneh'i. 
Another example of the conservative's strength is a press, parliamentary and judicial campaign against the Teheran municipality. The Mayor of Teheran, Mr Gholamhossein Karbaschi, was a key architect of Khatami's election strategy. He has been a very effective mayor….A number of his officials have been accused in the newspapers, arrested, held incommunicado and reportedly made confessions implicating Mr Karbaschi. 
There is bound to be corruption in the municipality. But one can surmise that the municipality is no more corrupt than many other bodies managed by the conservatives. The general perception is that the conservatives are taking revenge on a man who played a major role in depriving their candidate of what seemed to be certain victory. 

However despite the limitations on his authority Khatami has managed to score some points against the right. The removal of General (Mohsen) Reza'I from the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard is seen as a key step by Khatami to assert his authority…. But what is most important is the impact of Khatami's election on the political scene…. 
His victory has not only given an impetus to the question of the importance of elections in Islamic Republic, it has also revived the significant issue of the position of the Supreme Leader and his source of legitimacy. Does he represent God of Man?…. 
Khomeiny was both Leader of the Revolution and a Grand Ayatollah. As the late Mehdi Bazargan (Islamic Republic's first Prime Minister) wryly observed "the office of the supreme leadership is a cloak tailored only to fit his eminence"…..(As) ayatollah Khameneh'i, Khomeiny's chosen successor lacked religious seniority the prerequisites of being Supreme Leader were downplayed in the amended constitution for the cloak to fit the new leader… 
There is consensus across the board about the need for the constitutional Leader. As Rafsanjani put it recently, without the Supreme Leader Iran would have become another Afghanistan. He is the focal point in a highly centralised state such as Iran. What is being challenged are the sources of his legitimacy, the limits of his power and the extent of his religious authority beyond the state apparatus…… 
The authorities active campaign to limit the number of Marj'as, has weakened the position of Marj'a Taqlid in the Shi'a world altogether. Khameneh'i's attempt to be recognised as Marj'a may lead him to move to the city of Qom where most leading theologians reside. If that happens, Rafsanjani would be in a good position to be appointed as deputy-Leader. Those on the left within the Islamic camp have been expressing their desire to see the Supreme Leader directly elected…What is even more interesting is Rafsanjani's half hearted defence of the Supreme Leader by saying he can be dismissed……. 
The right should not be expected to behave any different from Rafsanjani's time. It will do its best to undermine Khatami and his government, ensuring that it fails to carry out his election pledges…. 
On the economic front, Khatami is bound to a large extent by what has been agreed. He is committed to completing the second five-year plan which will run for another two years and seeing through the current budget…The budget he will present the Majlis will give us some indications of how he has managed to reconcile differences in economic policies between his moderate colleagues who are proponents of economic reforms and his left wing advisers and supporters who favour a more socialist-oriented programme….. 
Foreign investment is badly needed to expand oil production. The recent deal with a consortium led by Total is therefore an important psychological step. Not only because it defies the American sanctions, but because it will encourage others to follow suit. The proposed project for the construction of a gas pipeline from Turkemenistan to Turkey through Iran can further enhance Iran's position. 
On relations with America, despite the ideological barriers, the problem may have more to do with excluding others from power and also the fact that whoever is going to be the first to restart a successful dialogue with the united states is going to be the winner in the internal power struggle. Therefore, neither faction is willing to allow itself to be left out of this vital race. 

Baqer Mo'in is the Head of the Persian/Pashto service of the BBC World Service 
All notes in brackets are from IPS