EXPERTS DO NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF NEW WAR IN MIDDLE EAST

MOSCOW-TEL AVIV 18 Aug. (IPS) As Israeli military intelligence and experts confirmed that they were monitoring "closely" Egyptian troops and tank movements, Russian diplomats, defence officials and strategists are reaching the conclusion that an Arab-Israeli war could erupt in the Middle East over the next three to six months, the Middle East News Line agency said Friday.

Israeli military sources said intelligence surveillance has increased its alert over the prospect that Egyptian troops would be ordered to cross the Suez Canal to the western Sinai peninsula, stressing that the effort would climax next month when Egypt's Third Army is scheduled to hold an exercise.

Though both the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon have assured that they would not escalate, but Russian experts assessment of the situation is that a war would stem from the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Israeli sources Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is being pressed by the Palestinians to launch a military move that would deter Israel from any attack on the Palestinian Authority. "So far, the sources said, Mubarak has resisted", according to MENL report.

"We are moving inexorably toward a war", a senior Russian diplomat said. "Russia has tried and the United States has tried to stop this, but to no avail."

The scenario by many government officials and strategists is that such a war would engulf Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. They said Egypt could be swept into such a conflict.

The Egyptian Third Army is scheduled to conduct an exercise near the Suez Canal next month. Under the 1979 Peace Treaty with Israel, Egypt cannot move more than several thousand troops into central Sinai. The eastern portion of the peninsula is demilitarised

The trigger for the war could take place in September. The Russian analysts expect an Israeli offensive against the Palestinian Authority triggered by Palestinian bombings of Israeli cities could prompt Egypt to direct its Third Army to enter the Sinai, where President Mubarak could order a limited crossing by the Third Army into the Sinai.

Russian strategist Yevgeney Stanovsky, head of the Moscow-based Middle East Institute said a regional war is inevitable in wake of the failure of international efforts to implement a ceasefire.

Israeli sources said the Egyptian exercise, called Bader, is extremely sensitive and that the United States is working to ensure that Cairo does not violate the peace treaty.

"Israel has not raised the issue formally with Egypt and has not asked that the exercise be limited,", the sources said, adding that high-ranking military commanders have been warned against raising the issue publicly.

"We don't want to speak about the possibility of escalation with Egypt because we have a peace treaty", a senior military source said.

Concerns for an outbreak of war in the region were expressed at a time that Baghdad and Damascus, two former enemy brothers have moved dramatically closer to each other.

Syria’s Prime Minister Mostafa Miro traveled to Baghdad last Sunday and was received by the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, who offered Iraq’s "full support" in case Syria was attacked by Israel.

"Iraq will stand by Syria and provide support, including military", Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan said on Monday.

Since 1980, when the two neighbours that are ruled by antagonists branches of Al Ba’s Party broke off relations, with Syria taking the side of Shi’a Iran that was attacked by Arab Iraq, this is the first time that a Syrian Prime Minister visits Baghdad officially.

Syria also fought in the 1991 international coalition that ousted Iraq from Kuwait after seven months of occupation.

But tension eased between the two countries after the confirmation of Mr. Bashar Asad as Syria’s new President, paving the way for normalisation ties, opening diplomatic missions, and cancelling visa formalities for people travelling between the states and increasing trade volume.

The timing of the trip, with the region gripped with increasing tension between the Palestinians and Israelis, lends Mr. Miro’s visit an important political dimension, with both Iraq and Syria considered sworn enemies of Israel.

"We urgently need more Arab solidarity to face up to the hostile policy of Israel, which is trying to annihilate the intifada of the Palestinian people by force," Miro told Iraqi hosts, who reciprocated.

"All aggression against Iraq is an aggression against Syria", warned Miro, who is accompanied by a delegation of businessmen.

Meanwhile, Iran, another country staunchly hostile to Israel announced last week that it had completed development of a 155 mm towed artillery system.

The effort could lead to an upgrade of aging U.S.-built howitzers supplied to Teheran during the 1960s and 1970s. The upgrade includes a new 39-calibre barrel that can fire shells up to a range of 30 kilometres.

The London-based Jane's Defence Weekly reported that the state-owned Hadid Armament Industries Group is carrying out the howitzer project. The group has manufactured a complete 155 mm/39-cal towed artillery system and is building 122 mm and 155 mm barrels used in Iranian self-propelled artillery systems.

The new Iranian howitzer is not regarded as an advanced system. The HM41 does not have a load assist device and its maximum rate of fire is four rounds per minute.

Iran is also working on the development of advanced missiles systems and is getting assistance from Russia for the construction of a nuclear power plant that critics says could help the Iranian ayatollahs building their first atomic bomb. ENDS MIDDLE EAST WAR 18801