OUTCOME OF ISRAELI ELECTIONS IN THE HANDS OF YASER ARAFAT

By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor

PARIS 3 Feb. (IPS)    "A few things, like the release by the Lebanese Hezbollah of one or two Israeli soldiers it has kidnapped, a green light from Arafat to Arab Israelis to vote for Barak and a last minute meeting between him and PA Chairman may change the balance in favour of the embattled Israeli Prime Minister" said a veteran Palestinian politician, hinting that in a twist of history the outcome of the Israeli elections of 6 January depended on the "Old Man".

These "possibilities" that if occurred, would dramatically change the electoral picture in Israel were told to Iran Press Service by Mr. Bassam Abu Sharif, Mr. Yaser Arafat's last official spokesman until the historic "shake hand" between the leader of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the late Yitzhak Rabin in Washington on 13 September 1993.

Commenting on the forthcoming Israeli Prime ministerial elections, Mr. Abou Sharif said "It does not matter for us who is going to be the next Israeli Prime minister, for the simple reason that he would have to talk to the Old Man", as Mr. Arafat is referred to both friendly and tempestuously.

"Knowing the caprices of Israeli voters, just think how quickly the balance could shift in favour of Mr. Barak would he throwing a big welcome party for one or two Israeli soldiers held by the Hezbollah and at the same time the Ra'is (Arafat) calling on the Israeli Arabs to go to ballot boxes and vote for Barak", he said, half speculator, half seriously.

The Iran and Syria-backed Lebanese Hezbollah kidnapped months ago three Israeli officers in the Shaba enclave between Israeli, Lebanese and Israeli borders and a retired colonel few weeks later in the Persian Gulf Sheikhdom of Abu Dhabi.

Informed Lebanese sources confirmed Mr. Abou Sharif's "scenario" of the possible release of some of the Israeli hostages, saying though discussions to that effect is "going well" between Palestinian and Hezbollah negotiators, but there are "serious obstacles" due to pressures from both Tehran and Damascus over the Resistance Movement not to accept Palestinian demands.

"Syria would be willing to give its blessing to the Palestinian proposal provided it includes concessions by Israel to Syria over Golan", the source added.

Passing by Paris on his way to Washington to both meet officials from the new George W. Bush Administration and also have medical check up, Mr. Abu Sharif said no matter who the next Israel Prime minister is, as he would have "no other choice" but to talk to Mr. Arafat. "At the same time, we have gone to the maximum limit of concessions we could offer the Israelis", he pointed out.

Though like many Palestinians, Mr. Abou Sharif said he would prefer the caretaker Barak to Ariel Sharon, the Likud leader who is reported enjoying a winning score of between 17 to 21 points over his rival, yet he expressed "assurances" that if elected, Mr. Sharon would come "forward shaking hands" with Arafat and continue the stalemated negotiations".

He said he met secretly Sharon in Paris in 1989 over the fate of Ron Arad, the Israeli co-pilot who's plane was shot over Lebanon and captured by the Hezbollah "at a time it was absolutely forbidden to any Israeli to meet Palestinians" and found him "a man ready to discussion".

"We knew the man, his past crimes. He purchased us up to Beirut, but was not able to reach us", Mr. Abou Sharif recalled, saying he does not thing matters could go worse than what are right now as a result of Barak's "anti-Palestinian policies".

"OK, let's say if Sharon is elected the Intifada would continue. Let's say there will be 1000 more Palestinians and 100 more Israelis killed. What after? Could he bear more? He would have come forward and negotiate from where we are now, giving us what we are asking, as there are no more concessions we can make", he said.

Palestinians erupted in new intifada, called the "Al Aqsa Intifada" after Mr. Sharon paraded on the Haram el Shari, known to Jews as The Temple Mount, a sacred site for both Muslims and Jews on 28 September, under heavy police protection provided by Mr. Barak.

Since then, more than 300 Palestinians and 30 Israelis were killed and more than 1000 wounded on each side in continuous fightings.

Palestinian Prevenentive Security chiefs Jibril Rajoub and Mohammed Dahlan claim they warned Israel of an outbreak of violence should the Likud leader visit the Mount accompanied by a large number of armed Israeli policemen.

Rajoub told "The Jerusalem Post" the day before the visit that it could lead to an outbreak of violence far worse than the 1996 Western Wall tunnel riots.

In the IPS interview, Mr. Abou Sharif also confirmed Mr. Ben Ami's statement of a week ago describing the talks in Taba "very serious, very positive".

"We have overcome many difficult points, remains few but major obstacles, chief among them the right of the Palestinians expelled from the land by the Israelis. But as for many other otherwise taboos, this one can find solution if goodwill prevails. But for the time being, there is no goodwill on the part of Barak", he observed.

As he was speaking to IPS, a local radio station said Mr. Barak has decided not to meet Mr. Arafat before Tuesday's election. "He will tell UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson to abandon their efforts to arrange the meeting", the radio said, quoting Israeli officials.

Barak has changed his mind three times this week on the proposed last-minute summit with Arafat. At the end of the Taba talks on Saturday night, Shlomo Ban-Ami mentioned the summit and Barak's office said he was tilting toward it so long as the outcome was assured beforehand.

On Sunday, Barak announced a freeze on contacts with Arafat after the Palestinian leader's fierce attack on Israel at the Davos World Economic Forum.

On Monday, Arafat gave a conciliatory interview to Channel Two and Barak said he would think again about joining a summit. Yesterday he dropped the idea again.

And on Thursday, Mr. Barak announced that "The campaign begins at midnight", underlining his refusal to step down and let veteran politician Shimon Peres take the helm for Labor in the race for prime minister.

According to latest polls, Peres would defeat Sharon who would defeat Barak if left alone with him in the race.

Describing the campaign as "the strangest and shortest" ever held here, Mr. Barak added "now we have to convince the voters to choose us and the right way", thus putting himself more than ever at the merci of the Palestinian leader.

According to Israeli press, Peres was so furious at Barak, so angry that he considered calling a news conference after the Prime minister referred to Yitzhak Rabin's 1979 memoir in which the late premier referred to Peres as an "indefatigable saboteur".

Peres decided against calling in the press but his associates said he remained "livid" with Barak over his Rabin's comment.

Meanwhile U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell will have his first official meeting with an Israeli representative today when he meets the ambassador to Washington, David Ivri. The administration told Israel it is taking no stand on the Israeli election and that Washington's policy is that bilateral relations between the U.S. and countries of the Middle East does not depend on progress in the peace process. ENDS ISRAEL PALESTINE 3201