WITH NO MIRACLE IN SIGHT, SHARON POISED TO BE ISRAEL NEW PREMIER

By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor in Israel
TEL AVIV 6TH Feb. (IPS) Israeli voters will go to the polls to day to chose their next Prime minister in what is described by some leading Israeli commentators as "the most superfluous elections" in Israeli history.

Since no miracle happened Monday, the weekend polls showed Mr. Ariel Sharon, the candidate of the right wing Likud leading the caretaker Ehud Barak by 17 to 21 percentage points.

"It will change nothing in the political behaviour of the current Knesset (parliament) and will be unable to break the deadlock in relations with the Palestinians", wrote Uzi Benziman in the daily Ha’aretz.

The 120 seats of the Israeli parliament is now divided between 18 different political parties, ranging from ultra-orthodox religious organisations to leftist, secular groups and whoever tonight is the winner would depend on some smaller parties to be able to govern properly.

The expected victory of Mr. Sharon would secure him a 61, 62 seats in the Knesset, a very tiny and fragile majority to carry firmly a very difficult negotiation with Palestinians.

Mr. Sharon can form a right wing Likud-based government, but though it would be a "more homogenous one in its attitude towards the Palestinians" it would also carry the seeds of more violence from the young stone thrower Palestinians.

On the other hand, he is also credited to be willing to form a "national unity government" offering the key posts of Defence and Foreign Affairs to respectively Mr. Barak and Mr. Shimon Peres, the only personality reported by the polls able to defeat Mr. Sharon, but was barred by Mr. Barak.

Asked about this possibility, Mr. Peres said "why not", adding that Labour would eventually join Likud "according to plans, not persons".

"Whoever is Prime Minister tomorrow, he would have to face realities", he added, explaining that there are "one platforms for politicians as candidate and another for after victory".

"If he forms a national unity government, he will pursue the negotiations; if he will form a narrow coalition, it may lead to an escalation of violence in the region", Palestinian sources commented.

Seasoned Israeli commentators of both sides agreed that Mr. Barak’s hesitations, his two steps forward, one step backward in his dealings with the Palestinians, the concessions made to them without securing anything in return, particularly on security problems, and finally frustrating all his trusted allies and friends, were the main reasons for the outgoing Premier’s "abyssal fall" in the public opinion, the same that had voted massively for him two years ago.

"Israelis could not accept a division of Jerusalem, they can not accept terrorists living next their doors, they do not accept why Mr. Barak has accepted to negotiate on such fundamental issues with Palestinians", said Mr. Jonathan Becker, a young Campaign Manager for Mr. Sharon.

Speaking to Iran Press Service in the Likud Head Quarters in Tel Aviv hours before the polls started, he said, "whatever Barak did was a mistake. The man is no more credible for the Israelis. Even the unilateral withdrawal of our forces from Lebanon, the only major thing he achieved, was a great mistake" he pointed out, describing the Palestinians unscrupulously and systematically as "terrorists".

Asked to explain the dramatic of "divorce" of the Israelis with Mr. Barak, Mr. Becker started by pointing out "he did not win, Netenyahu lost in the last elections, thanks to the coalition of the press which, in our country, is dominated by a minority of leftist elite and intellectuals".

"But not only Barak failed in his dealings with the Palestinians, but also in his economic plans, as we can see today how bad is our economic situation", he further said.

Others pointed to other Barak’s "major mistakes", like the priority he gave to the Syrian track soon after his election, a time during which he neglected the Palestinians, who felt insulted, without gaining anything but being humiliated by Hafez Asad, too much concessions to the Palestinians, particularly on sensitive and sentimental issues such as the status of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount, or Haram el Sharif for the Muslims etc."

Though, from interview with Mr. Becker, one had the clear sentiment that Mr. Sharon would go back to the "iron fist" policy of former Likud Premier Benjamin Netenyahu, yet he assured that if elected, Mr. Sharon would "continue friendly relations" with Arab states, particularly Egypt and Jordan, the two neighbours with full diplomatic ties with the Jewish State.

Asked if Mr. Sharon had a broader foreign policy that would include the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel’s main "enemy" in the region, he said Sharon would continue to support the US policy of containing international terrorism.

"At present, the Islamic Republic says it wants to eradicate Israel, but has not taken any action. We think the Iranian leaders knows us and also know what the law of Talion means", he said emphatically.

Meanwhile, Israeli police and security forces were place on high alert to thwart possible Palestinian attacks on Jewish targets during the elections day.

According to an Israeli spokesman, as many 11,000 policemen and soldiers would be deployed throughout the "borders" between Israel and Palestinian Authority, sealing off Gaza strip and the West Bank, where Israeli security sources fear Palestinian extremists might carry out bomb-attacks against Israeli targets in the areas as well as within Israel itself.

Arab states as well as the Palestinian Authority have voiced a great deal of apprehension about the prospects of Sharon becoming Israel's next prime minister.

"The Middle East has never before taken such an active role in an Israeli election. Senior Palestinian Authority representatives are almost asking Israel to elect Prime Minister Ehud Barak because Likud leader Ariel Sharon would be an environmental disaster", wrote the leftist "Ha'artetz".

Informed Palestinian sources told IPS that "President" Yaser Arafat has started to consult with Arab states on ways of dealing with a victory by Ariel Sharon.

Predicting a combination of "lengthy negotiations and a continuation of violence", the sources conceded that Arafat does not know what to expect from the former General.

"Let's wait and see what Sharon will do once he takes office", Nabil Amr, Palestinian minister for parliamentary affairs told the "Jerusalem Post".

"What we are concerned with is that the government will pursue the path of peace," Arafat spokesman Nabil Abu Rudaineh said. "We will deal with Sharon as a prime minister, not as the general who led the Lebanon war", he said, quoted by the "Jerusalem Post".

Sharon was tried by an Israeli court for his role in the massacres of Palestinians by the Lebanese "Phalangist" militia at Sabra and Shatial refugee camps south of Beirut in the fall of 1982.

In his campaign, Mr. Barak used this episode to present his rival as a kind of war criminal, but Israeli sources dais this was also another Barak blunder "as at this very time, what the Israeli wanted more is a strong man like Sharon". ENDS ISRAEL ELECTIONS 6201