IRAN-NEW US ADMINISTRATION TO GLARING AT EACH ANOTHER: EXPERTS

Exclusive to Iran Press Service

By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor

PARIS 20 Jan. (IPS)    With President-elect George W. Bush to be installed officially as the United States of America's 43rd President replacing William J. Clinton, three Iranian analysts watching Tehran-Washington's tumultuous relations said they expect no change in either sides policy at least in the first half year of the new Republican Administration.

Mr. Jahanshah Javid, a Washington-based Iranian independent journalist , Dr. Mansur Farhang, post-revolutionary Islamic Iran's first Envoy at the United Nations now teaching international politics at New York universities and Dr. Shahin Fatemi, senior Professor of Economics at the American University of Paris all agreed that no dramatic change should be expected in Tehran-Washington relations during the next coming months, the two sides "glaring at each another".

They also said that while the old and "inefficient" policy of "Dual Containment" would be abandoned, America's conditions for normalising with Tehran, i.e ending support for terrorism, efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and opposing peace process in the Middle East would remain, eventually with some "nuances".

To Iran Press Service's first question about the new State Secretary Collin Powel's declarations made Wednesday at the Senate's Foreign Relations Confirmation Hearing Committee, indicating possible "nuance" in ties with the Islamic Republic, Mr. Javid, Editor of the "Iranians", a popular internet web site said:

"The new Republican Administration would favour economic over politic, would probably lift sanctions on oil companies. Politically speaking, with uncertainties surrounding the Iranian political theatre, the new Administration would wait until the Iranians make the first step.

However, all developments would depend on Iran itself and the region. In case situation remains relatively calm and Iran do not change its policy for a harder one, I believe the Bush Administration would also adopt appeasement".

Dr. Farhang also think the new US government would be "willing" to reciprocate if Iran takes a more moderate line towards Washington.

"However, there are two important points: The first one is the influence of the US major oil firm that in the past three years have invested much for bridging the gaps between Tehran and Washington, like paying for the ceremonies organised last September in New York at which a visiting Iranian parliamentary delegation led by the Majle Speaker Hojjatoleslam Mehdi Karrubi met and chat for the first time directly with four US lawmakers. Oil companies have better ties with the Republicans.

"The second point is the pro-Israeli lobbies that are traditionally closer to the Democrats than Republicans. They played an important role under the Clinton Administration for putting pressure on Iran and would like Tehran giving some advantages to Israel as a reward for better relations with Washington.

"Nevertheless, these lobbies would enjoy less influence with the new Administration and this also could benefit a possible warming of Iran-US ties".

Professor Fatemi points that Mr. Powel's statement at the Confirmation Hearing must be taken at "face value and one of circumstance".

"But I have the impression that Mr. Powel's was not in tune with the Republicans official platform that, directly and indirectly, had formulated criticism concerning free points and advantages offered to the Iranians by the Clinton Administration in the past four months.

"I think the Iranians have attached too much importance to the new Secretary of State's declarations, as they are not familiar with the new officials in Washington.

"In my view, what must be taken seriously and pay attention to is the new Moscow-Peking axis. Russia and China wants to drag Iran into their policy of containing US influence in Asia and the fear is that they push and use Iran for their aim. In case of any US bold reaction, Iran would suffer, not them. Washington follow up seriously the recent developments in Iran-Russia ties described by the Iranians as "strategic ties".  

To the question on whether one should expect any change in Iranian policy towards the US, taking into consideration the fact that the ruling conservatives have the upper hand and push their anti-reform, anti-detente policy, as seen by the recent verdicts against several prominent reformers, sentences that drew sharp protests from the West, including the US, Mr. Javid said:

"The new Administration would wait for the outcome at the next Iranian presidential elections, regardless of Mr. Khatami's re-election. Until then, no major move should be expected. In one word, the new tenant of the White House would adopt a wait and see policy.

"As to the State Department's condemnation of the verdicts, it is a standard one, considering the fact that the days of the Clinton Administration are over".

Mr. Farhang: "No matter who is at the White House, Americans do not forget the humiliations they have suffered at the hands of the Islamic Republic, a regime that still projects a very bad image to the average American. Notwithstanding, President Khatami, with his civilised manners, his smiling face, has been able to change that image a little bit.

"But in my opinion, the new Administration would be more pragmatic, pay less importance to human rights than the previous one. As a starter, it would say goodbye to the ineffective and wrong policy of Dual Containment. As for the Iranians, who are sending positive signals, as seen by Mr. Kharrazi's statements, they would expect the new team in Washington making the first steps".

Dr. Fatemi on the same subject: "Iranian Ayatollahs would face a new team made of veterans, experienced bunch of decision-makers who know their lessons well. Talking about American needing Iran oil or exagerating Iran's importance in the region are self-satisfactory. At the same, and considering the crisis in Zaire, where President Kabilla was shot dead, in the Philippines where a coup looms dangerously and other important issues the new Administration would have to respond, Iran issue would be put into a backburner".

The next question was "Let's suppose President Bush accepting all Iranian conditions. With an obstinate leader like Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i who endlessly brands the US as Iran's and the Muslim's number one enemy in the one hand and antagonism with Washington being a raison d'etre of the Iranian ruling theocracy on the other, would Iran be prepared to reciprocate?

Mr. Javid say Iranian clerics have "also shown pragmatism, as seen with their relations with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, all monarchies condemned by Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic".

Mr. Farhang also agrees, adding that Iranians too prefer to start with economic noralisation. "However, any normalisation is a double-edged sword for the Iranians. The Iranians might be willing to normalise only if they can present it as a victory for them over the US, a condition that in my opinion, the Bush-Chenny ticket would not accept".

Professor Fatemi: "If the conservatives succeed in their rampant coup, they would certainly make some concessions to the Americans in order to consolidate their position, if not, they would have to hang on to their anti-American, anti-Israeli, anti-peace process weapons. Even President Khatami calls for the replacing of the State of Israel by a Palestinian one".

"Another important factor is the vanishing of the pro-Islamic Republic lobbies and the rise of the moderate Iranians in the US. The agents working on behalf of the Islamic Republic had put almost all their eggs in the Democrats basket. The ruling ayatollahs have few lobbies with the Republicans. Moreover, the bulk of the wealthy, successful and influential Iranian community in the US is closer to the Republicans than the Democrats".

To sum up, in regard to Iran, the new Republican Administration, satisfied with the present situation in the oil markets, would walk very cautiously and with a stick during the coming 5 to 6 months, taking no dramatic initiative unless Tehran make a faux-pas, like going too far in its military co-operation with Moscow or providing substantive support to Palestinians and Arab groups to torpedo the peace-process should Israeli-Palestinian negotiations succeed. ENDS IRAN NEW US GOVERNMENT 20101