DON’T BE SURPRISED IF SHAMKHANI BECOMES THE NEXT PRESIDENT
By Safa Haeri, IPS Editor
PARIS 15 May (IPS) The opinion of the general public as well as most
observers and Iran watchers both inside and outside Iran is that Mr. Mohammad
Khatami would re-elected, the important question, in their view, is therefore
the number of the votes he would get: more than the "historic" figure
he received in the last elections of May 1997, or less, and how much less?
This means that in their views, the approval of Hojjatoleslam Khatami by the all-powerful, 12 members leader-appointed Council of Guardians (CG) that has the power to accept or reject the credential of the candidates is a forgone conclusion.
Some analysts think that to keep the President under the yoke of the ruling conservatives, the CG would make sure that Mr. Khatami gets the lower possible of votes, by the simple method of vetting more than the usual four runners in the coming race in order to scatter the votes as much as possible.
The other side of this coin is that if Mr. Khatami receives more votes than what he got in the past elections, he would adopt a firmer stand against the hard liners, as he is urged by a great majority of his supporters, mostly the students.
However, this "pen", -- to use an expression much employed by many Iranian journalists and political writers would not be surprised by learning that the not only the honnourable guardians have rejected the "moderate Khatami", as most Western journalists and commentators like to describe the outgoing Iranian President, but the conservative magicians bring out of their sleeves an outsider like Admiral Ali Shamkhani.
Let’s have a look as the past events, starting from the moment that former Commander in Chief of the revolutionary Guards and present Secretary of the Expediency Council General Mohsen Reza’i published a few "fraternal" open letters to Mr. Khatami, "advising" him to change course and programs if he decided to seek another mandate.
This was when Mr. Khatami was keeping the entire nation and outside world guessing about his intention, the conservatives spreading rumours that considering his failure in repudiated by his supporters, he has decided not to enter the race and reformists busy to prove the contrary, affirming that not only he would run, but also pursue his promises for gradual changes towards a more open society.
The friendly bits of advices gradually changed to become vindictive warnings; the letters were replaced by fiery speeches of a candidate in the making campaigning against an archrival, going as far as telling openly that nation that though Mr. Khatami is a nice, honest man of the good clerical stock, nonetheless, he is not a good manager "not fit to run the nation".
It was obvious that he was a "testing balloon" launched by the conservatives, pampered by the "Master Prestidigitator" Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and "blessed" by the "Master", or Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i, the leader of the Islamic Republic.
But then he suddenly disappeared form the scene. "Two little rounds and out".
At exactly the same time that Mr. Reza’i made it clear that he was not a candidate, Mr. Khatami’s own Defence Minister announced his candidacy.
Though the decision surprised, but was received with indifference from the reformists, treated as a "non event" by commentators and analysts, evoking no interest in the public.
The ousting of General Reza’i and his replacement by Rear Admiral Shamkhani was the fruit of sound political considerations and facts: The former Guards Commander is hated by the public because of his close associations with the former president. He is remembered as one of those, including Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani himself, responsible for the defeat of Iran in the war against Iraq, and above all, for having deliberately prolong the bloody conflict for several more years, causing hundreds of thousands more dead, wounded and disabled, destroying the nation’s infrastructure, bleeding it’s human and natural resources and displacing millions of people, as confirmed by Grand Ayatollah Hoseinali Montazeri in his famous "Memories" published first on the internet and printed afterward outside Iran.
On the other hand, Mr. Shamkhani, also a Guards officer, is regarded as a "clean" officer. Having served in the navy and far from Tehran, he is not associated with the Guard’s unpopular role of one of the ruling mollah’s instruments of terrorising the people and crushing dissidents.
It is important to note that as high-ranking officer, Mr. Shamkhani is under direct control of Ayatollah Khameneh’i who, as the leader, is also the supreme commander of all Iranian armed forces.
This means that the Defence Minister could not have entered the elections without the prior approval of Mr. Khameneh’i.
Therefore, not only he enjoys the trust of the conservatives, but also the blessings of the leader.
Having all these in mind, let’s go back to the situation in which the Guardians have rejected Mr. Khatami but approved a dozen second-rated candidates instead.
With none of the runners likely to be elected in the first round, the conservative who also control the state-run media and are "loaded" with money, can easily secure the victory of Mr. Shamkhani in the second round of voting.
The first none-cleric President who is not a civilian either, Admiral Shamkhani presents the advantage of bringing a sense of security and order and fighting corruption, a man who though would remain under the firm grip of the conservatives, yet would constitutes a "change in the continuity". ENDS ELECTIONS SHAMKHANI 15501