
A CHANGE IN IRAN IS NO CHANGE FOR ISRAEL
By Ze'ev Schiff*
JERUSALEM 10 Nov. (IPS) The 11 September terrorist operations against the United States might affect Iran’s relations with the West, including America, but not with Israel, says a veteran Israeli journalist, who suggests that in its contacts with the Iranians, Washington should insist that Tehran stop "calling for the destruction of the State of Israel and lay aside its plans for masterminding terrorist attacks on Israeli soil".
Various signs point to the fact that secret talks with Tehran are taking place behind the scenes in Washington. It is not yet clear whether these talks will open new doors. When the Iranians are asked whether they are against the kind of terror carried out in the United States in September, they say yes. But if the implication is that they support America, as Washington is demanding, the answer is no.
From talks with Iranians, it appears that their outlook on certain issues that used to be cut and dried, such as the mobilisation of American troops, has changed. In the past, Tehran argued that for the sake of stability, U.S. troops should withdraw from the Persian Gulf. Now they are saying that as long as American forces are deployed in the Persian Gulf, Saddam Hussein will be afraid of launching a new war.
They also say that an American presence in Pakistan will protect the country from Talebanisation. Tehran sees the Taleban as a dangerous rival, which is why it is not averse to the idea of America's bringing about the group's collapse. The Iranians say that Saddam has brokered ties between the anti-Iranian underground and the Taleban so that the underground can also attack Iran from across the border.
Iran was not shocked by the American-British recognition of Pakistan as a legitimate nuclear power. Tehran is surrounded by a large nuclear community. Aside from Pakistan, there is India, and also Turkey, which is a member of NATO. Iran is not worried so much about Israel but rather the possibility that Iraq will resume its nuclear development program. Israel is already perceived by the world as a nuclear power. It is believed to be building up its capacity to send nuclear warheads as far as the Persian Gulf. Now there is an organisation rather than a country (Ben Laden) that is trying to get its hands on weapons of mass destruction. This has strengthened the position of those who support Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The Iranian public is more interested in economic development than costly nuclear programs. That is not the case with most of its leaders, although there are some who feel that nuclear development should be pursued to the point of manufacture but no further. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Washington's fears with the Iranians. He presented a new proposal, asking Tehran to allow a Russian-American commission to supervise activity at the nuclear centre in Bushehr, which Russia is helping to build.
On the other hand, Iranian leaders, even those considered pragmatic such as President Mohammad Khatami, support the continuation of the ground-to-ground missile program, although they feel that a shorter range (enough to reach Israel) is sufficient. Europe was reassured by Iran that it would not continue to develop the longer-range Shihab-4 missile that could cover most of Europe.
The bottom line, at this point, is that any change in Iran in the wake of the massive attacks in America will affect its relations with the West and the United States, not with Israel. Arab public opinion is very important to Tehran. It is not about to reverse its position on the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab conflicts. Nothing has been said to indicate that the situation will change in the near future.
Iran has told the Europeans that Imad Mugniyeh, a Lebanese citizen considered an outright terrorist, has been asked to leave Iran. But there has been no change in its policy with regard to Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, which receive financial aid from Iran. One hopes that in its contacts with the Iranians, America will insist that Tehran stop calling for the destruction of the State of Israel and lay aside its plans for masterminding terrorist attacks on Israeli soil. ENDS ISRAEL IRAN HA’ARETZ 101101
*Mr. Schif is considered as one of the Israeli’s best informed military journalists. The above article was published in the Israeli liberal newspaper "Ha’aretz" on 9 November 2001.
Highlights are by IPS