FORM INTERIM GOVERNMENT BEFORE REMOVING TALEBAN: EXPERTS
By Safa Haeri
PARIS 11 Oct. (IPS) Mr. Olivier Roy, a respected French expert of Afghanistan warned the United States against toppling the Taleban before having decided on a viable government capable of replacing them in Kabol immediately after their fall.
"If, thanks to the Americans, the Northern Alliance, formed of Afghan minority ethnics, are established in Kabol, this could well lead to the "radicalisation" of the Poshtoon majority of Afghans who would "never accept to see the capital in the hands of the minorities, particularly the Tajiks", Mr. Roy said.
He was speaking Wednesday during a conference organised by the prestigious French think tank Institut Francais des Relations Internationale (IFRI), jointly with the American veteran journalist and author of the newly published book "The Unholy Wars", Mr. John Cooley.
Confirming other expert’s views that the present Anglo-American military campaign aimed at destabilising the ruling Taleban in Afghanistan is going "faster" than the political track, Mr. Roy agreed that any political solution to the Taleban must have a Poshtoon component and in that respect, the former King, Mohammad Zaher Shah, who is of Poshtoon ethnic and speaks Dari, or Afghan Persian, could be "the best bet for the time being".
"One has to create rapidly an interim government acceptable to all sides before the fall of Kabol", Mr. Roy said, adding that at the same time, one has to take necessary actions to "diminish, if not fight, the pernicious influence of Pakistan in Afghanistan and urge them not interfere in this neighbours affairs".
Discussing the complexities of the situation, the French expert, who speaks fluent Persian and has travelled widely in the region explained the close affinities existing between the Afghan and the Pakistani Poshtoon tribes and observed that despite their small number in Pakistan, where they form not more than 16 per cent of the population, the Poshtoons are "over represented" in the Pakistani army and government establishment.
"An Alliance-dominated government in Kabol would lead to the radicalisation of Poshtoons around the Taleban who would become the next resistance to the new government, enjoying the backing of Pakistan", Mr. Roy warned, adding that to "securise" a post-Taleban Afghanistan and prevent a return to the status quo ante, there is a "vital" need for an international presence in the war-shattered nation but also the help of Pakistan, by closing down or limiting its numerous Koranic schools that, in the words of Mr. Cooley, are "universities and high colleges of terrorism".
Explaining the role and attitude of the neighbouring states in the conflict, Mr. Roy noted that all would be happy to see the Taleban replaced by a moderate government and all, including Russia, would win in one way or another, "may be with the exception of Iranians, who would find themselves encircled by the Americans, their implacable enemy for the last 22 years.
But while Mr. Roy was minimising the role of Pakistan over the Afghan Taleban, Mr. Cooley maintained that the Pakistan army’s famous Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) and the CIA "virtually" created the Taleban "Frankstein".
"Universities of terrorism established in Pakistan with money from Saudi Arabia, logistics from the CIA that also filled them with students-mercenaries drawn mostly from Algeria and Tunisia but also Morocco and Libya and other Muslim nations like Turkey, all under the ISI control and surveillance, produced the brand of highly educated terrorists we saw in action in the 11 September calamity", he said.
Meanwhile, as the American planes kept pounding Taleban positions in Kabol and Qandahar for the fourth running day, representatives from several French and international humanitarian organisations in Paris expressed their fear Thursday to see the bombing of Afghanistan sending more people to refugees camps in neighbouring Pakistan and Iran.
Representatives from the French Red Cross, UNICEF and Action Contre la Faim (Action Against Hunger), speaking during a press conference, also expressed doubts about dropping humanitarian supplies from air.
"Food and humanitarian supplies must be taken to the villages and distributed to the needy ones, not dropped from sky into unpopulated areas", said Ms. Sylvie Brumel of the Action Contre la Faim.
Mr. Jacques Hintzy, of the UNICEF, described the situation in the war-torn nation "very difficult" and urged all nations to rush help the Afghan population before the cold winter time arrives.
He said while it is very difficult to assess the number of the Afghans who might flee to neighbouring countries, but if the bombing continues, one may speak of more or less one million and half new refugees. ENDS IFRI CONF AFQANESTAN 111001