
IRANIAN NUKES TOP U.S.-ISRAEL STRATEGIC TALKS
JERUSALEM 31 Oct. (IPS) Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is convening a top-level ministerial committee today (Wednesday) "to review Israel's strategic deterrence capabilities against threats to the state's existence, coming mostly from Iran", says Israel’s "Ha’aretz" daily.
"The main threat perceived by Israel is from Iran's efforts to acquire a nuclear capability", the daily says, reminding that Iran is building a nuclear power plant with Russian help.
Sharon, Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, Defence Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Minister without Portfolio Dan Meridor, who has responsibility for strategic issues, are the four Israeli ministers who deal with Israel's nuclear capabilities.
Last week, the "Leakage Committee," a joint U.S.-Israel committee established in the 1990s to keep track of nuclear technology leaking from the former Soviet Union to countries like Iran, was convened in Washington for the first time since the change in administration in the U.S.
The decision to convene the Leakage Committee was made in August during a strategic dialogue session between Israel and the U.S. But since then, there has been a dramatic change in geopolitics, as the September 11 terror attacks unexpectedly made U.S. attitudes toward Russia and Iran more positive.
The Israeli side to the meeting was led by Meridor and included Uzi Dayan, the head of the National Security Council, and Gideon Frank, who heads Israel's Atomic Energy Commission. They met with a U.S. delegation headed by John Bolton, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security and a long-standing friend of Israel. A decade ago, he led the U.S. effort to repeal the UN General Assembly resolution that equated Zionism with racism.
Russian President Vladmir Putin has aligned himself with U.S. President George W. Bush in the coalition against terror, and in mid-November he is due to visit Bush at his Texas ranch.
According to Ha’aretz, despite U.S.-Iranian attempts to ease tension between the two countries after more than two decades of hostility, the present administration is sticking to its firm opposition to an Iranian bomb and plans to raise the issue in the Bush-Putin talks in November.
The Americans do not need Israeli pressure on the issue of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons capability. But they are uncertain whether they can convince the Russians to turn off the nuclear leakage faucet to the Iranians, the paper noted.
During their talks last week in Washington, the Americans told the Israelis that they are reviewing their entire relationship with the Russians and want to see whether their joint interests are limited to terrorism or can be expanded beyond that to other issues.
"There were no disputes between Meridor and Bolton on the severity of the problem. The Israelis described a nuclear Iran as an existential threat to Israel and a threat to regional stability. They warned that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, Arab countries would be encouraged to step up their own efforts to get nuclear arms", Ha’aretz added.
According to Israeli sources, since September 11, the American administration has come to perceive a strong connection between terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Those countries that support terrorists, like Iran, Iraq and Syria, are all trying to get nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and long-range missiles for the delivery of those payloads.
Israel and the U.S. agree that Iran still has not crossed the point of no return on its way to a nuclear bomb. The Leakage Committee agreed that prevention, and not only slowdown of the leakage process, must be on the agenda.
The Americans estimate that Iran will be nuclear-capable by 2010, but if it gets outside help it could be as early as 2007. Israel's view, as expressed publicly by Ben-Eliezer, is that Iran could be nuclear-capable by 2005.
Iran has already experimented a long-range ballistic missile, "Shahab-3" capable of reaching Israel and beyond.
The transfer of Russian know-how to Iran continues, and the committee spent a lot of time on the question of who is responsible for it on the Russian side. The Americans believe that Putin is the strong man in Moscow and has the power to stop nuclear exports to Iran. But they doubt whether he is fully aware of all the details of that trade.
But the Russian President has told Americans that Moscow’s military co-operation with Iran and weapons it sells to Tehran, worth an estimated 7 billions US Dollars are of defensive nature and do not harm Israel’s security.
Changes in personnel have produced a change in Israeli policy and perception. Until recently, the person in charge of assessing the leakage problem was Major General Amos Gilad, in particular when he served as head of research in Military Intelligence. His view was that Russia was helping Iran in order to reassert Moscow's position as an alternative to the U.S. in the region and counter Washington's influence. He identified the former head of the Russian Atomic Energy Commission, Yevgeny Adamov, as the main force behind the leakage. But a few months ago, Gilad was named government coordinator in the territories and dropped the Iran issue. Adamov, too, has left his post. At last week's meeting in Washington, the Israelis did not repeat Gilad's view that Russia was helping Iran to counter U.S. influence in the region.
"The other major change is in Sharon's perception of the Russians. He has engaged them in candid discussions to explain how gravely Israel regards the matter and Israel's interest in finding a solution to the problem. Last week, Frank briefed Bolton on those discussions, which included a meeting with the new minister for atomic energy, Alexander Rumyantsev, whom Frank met last month at an international conference in Vienna. At that meeting, as at all previous meetings, the Russian denied Moscow was helping Iran acquire nuclear weapons know-how and technology and asked Israel to provide evidence", Ha’aretz said.
The U.S.-Israel Leakage Committee is now expected to step up the pace of its work. The next session is already slated for December.
"But the experience of past years shows that its mission is impossible. The Tehran regime has no interest in ceasing its nuclear bomb development and the Russians are not going to give up the revenues from sales to nuclear research stations in Iran", the paper acknowledges.
Russia has exploited the new openness with the United States. At the beginning of October, it signed a major arms deal with Iran after several years in which Washington managed to reduce weapons supplies from Moscow to Tehran. The heart of the deal is an SA-3000 air defence system that will be placed around the nuclear electric power plant that Russian companies are building in Bushar (Bushehr).
Israel wonders why a major oil producing country like Iran needs a nuclear-powered electricity plant - and believes it is to camouflage the employment of nuclear weapons technicians from Russia at the site. The Russian Atomic Energy Ministry announced this month that the equipment for the first plant in Bushehr will be supplied by the beginning of next year and the plant will be operational in four years.
For its part, Iran says that with more than 200 atomic bombs, Israel presents the major danger to both Iran’s and the region’s security.
Not only Iran does not recognise the Jewish State, but it also calls for its destruction, to be replaced by a "democratic Palestine" filled with its "original" Arab, Christian and Jewish population.
On the day Sharon visited Moscow, the Russians announced that they would be selling a second power plant to Iran as the second stage of the Bushehr project. ENDS ISRAEL IRAN NUKE 311001