ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S DAYS ARE NUMBERED

By Nader Sadighi*

LOS ANEGELES  On Wednesday July 31, Iranian Army’s joint chief of staff, General Hassan Firoozabadi told local reporters that Iran's top security decision-making body had recently discussed "enemy threats", and Iranian forces under his command had been told to make preparations for a possible attack by the United States on the Islamic Republic, which Washington has accused of supporting terrorism.

Michael Ledeen, one of the United States well informed columnists and respected scholars whom I interviewed few times in the recent past, has emphasised that the American government have no plan of attacking Iran and will not go for confrontation with Iranian people. On the contrary, America is providing moral support to Iranians who are struggling for their freedoms, he said on a "Pal Talk" chat room few days ago.

Mr. Ledeen was invited to this popular chat room by an Iranian student organisation called "Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy in Iran" (SMCCDI.)

The United States government has described Iran as part of, an "Axis of Evil" along with Iraq and North Korea, accusing Tehran of backing terrorism and seeking weapons of mass destruction as well as their delivery means.

Last week some members of U.S. Congress called for a change of regime in Iran in response to what they see as President Mohammad Khatami's failure to bring in reforms. But a State Department official dismissed on Tuesday July 30 as "hypothetical" talk of a possible pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear plant in the port of Bushehr, on the north shore of Persian Gulf.

At the same time American politicians, generals and media, are all carrying a mission of public opinion preparation for possible attack on the regime of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

However, compounding the Iranian leaders' anxiety about the American entrenchment to the east "Afghanistan" is President Bush's plan to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, with which Iran shares its 750-mile Western border.

Having fought a war with Iraq for eight years in 1980-88, the Iranians have no illusions about the nature of the Iraqi President or his authoritarian regime. But, 14 years after the end of that bloody conflict, the Islamic Republic would rather deal with the Iraqi dictator Hussein they have known than a government friendly with Washington as his successor.

In his recent interview with a western journalist, Mohammad Soltanifar, Managing Director of the government-backed newspaper "Iran-e Emrooz" (Iran Today) said "If President Bush hits Iraq, it will be very bad for us! And we shall be his next target".

"What we wonder if the Americans succeed in overthrowing Saddam without attacking his country? That will still be bad for Islamic Republic of Iran", Soltanifar argued. In Tehran there have been talk of forging an alliance with Iraq among the ruling elite for the sake of self-preservation.

It is not surprising that both regimes are pursuing staunchly pro-Palestinian policies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Last month, the Islamic government hosted an international conference in Tehran attended by leaders of terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, rejecting the US sponsored peace process.

Furthermore, according to the Qatari newspaper "Al Watan", Iran's religious clerics have urged Hamas to retaliate for the attack on an apartment complex in east Gaza city by an Israeli F-16 fighter jet, killing the group's military leader Salah Shehada.

The report on July 29 said a Hamas official living abroad met "two days ago" in Tehran with an Iranian religious figure. And on Wednesday July 31, Hamas claimed responsibility for another bomb blast in the Hebrew University, which shattered the peace in one of the few places where young Jews and Arabs still mixed freely. The attack killed seven civilians including five Americans and injured more than eighty Jews and Arabs including four US nationals. It was the second bombing to hit Jerusalem in two days.

Although Iran’s tyrants’ aggressive support for the likes of Hamas, catching lot of international attention but, pursuing such a policy does not bring the danger of foreign (namely US) military intervention in Iran. In fact the danger is within Iran itself and if the ruling Mullahs eased up a bit on crushing the Iranian people, dangerous popular rise shall be inevitable.

Iranian ruling clergy are in grave danger because of a continued public unrest all over the country. Demonstrations demanding change of Iran's Islamic fundamentalist government have spontaneously erupted since last year and the continuation of these demonstrations is clear evidence that the power of fundamentalism in Iran has faded very rapidly.

However dramatic as all this seems at the moment, Iran is the only place where the fundamentalist movement has lost influence at its birthplace and has proved to have no real solutions to Iranian society's problems. This is why so many people in the world and particularly in the west believe that days of Islamic regime in Iran are numbered forever.

Without a doubt restoration of a secular government in Iran shall have great impact on the whole region and fundamentalism shall fade away gradually. Of course Saudi Arabia’s case is a different story. ENDS REGIME’S DAYS NUMBERED 2802

Editor’s note: Mr. Sadighi is a prominent Iranian journalist and commentator

The article was published on First of August by the Paris-based "Iran va Jahan" (Iran And The World) internet website.

Highlights are from IPS.