IRAQ PLANS SCORCHED-EARTH STRATEGY

By JOHN J. LUMPKIN

WASHINGTON 20 Dec. (Associated Press-IPS)  Iraq is preparing to destroy its own oil fields, food supplies and power plants and blame the destruction on U.S. bombs during a war, U.S. intelligence officials said Wednesday.

The officials, briefing reporters at the Pentagon on condition of anonymity, said they have evidence Iraqi President Saddam Hoseyn has plans to wreck his own infrastructure to foster a humanitarian crisis and turn international opinion against any U.S. and British advance into his territory.

The briefing confirmed fears expressed by Tehran and Iranian analysts that the Iraqi dictator might use his chemical and biological weapons against both its population and neighbours, including Iran, Israel and Kuwait.

"It's very likely Saddam will use scorched-earth tactics", said Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute. "Any amount of destruction to protect his rule is justified".

Several military experts in Washington said this was a plausible scenario, given Saddam's destruction of Kuwaiti oil fields as he abandoned that country in 1991. U.S. defense officials have also said Saddam forces once chopped off the top of a mosque to make it appear it was hit during a U.S. air strike.

The information came as the US Secretary of State Colin Powell declared Thursday that Iraq was in "material breach" of a U.N. disarmament resolution, .

Baghdad's arms declaration "totally fails" to meet a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an accurate, full and complete inventory of weapons, Powell told a news conference at the State Department. He called Iraq's 12,000 page declaration "a catalogue of recycled information and flagrant omissions."

Earlier, chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said he would tell the Security Council that there is "not much" new information about Iraq's weapons programs in its latest declaration.

"There is a good bit of information about non-arms related activities," he said. "Not much information about the weapons." Blix said gaps remain in the declaration.

"As the clouds of war darken, it cannot be denied that the West, and, for that matter, the entire region is "nervous and quite concerned about what Saddam might do as a last act of desperation", warned "Iran News", published by the official news agency of Iran, IRNA.

The paper said one must not discount the possibility that the "megalomaniac autocrat" may very well choose to use his weapons of mass destruction against American invading forces and even against his neighbours whom he thinks had cooperated with the US.

The US and other Western powers, the editorial concluded, must therefore use the remaining communication channels still at their disposal to convince Baghdad that by resorting to desperate measures against his neighbours he cannot hasten doomsday

"A number of countries have prepared for operations like this in the past, but not executed them", said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Virtually everybody who has watched Iraq in action and is familiar with their military tactics probably thinks that Saddam will not go gently into that good night."

The U.S. intelligence officials also predicted Saddam will use his biological and chemical weapons if he believes he is about to fall. They predicted he would attack U.S. forces in Iraq, U.S. allies Israel and Kuwait, and any native Shi'ite Muslims and Kurds who rise up to oppose him.

Iraq can deliver these weapons with missiles, aircraft-mounted sprayers and artillery shells, the officials said. They expect Iraq to use disease weapons like anthrax, poisons like botulinum and ricin, and mustard gas. Saddam is not believed to have any nuclear weapons.

Iraq maintains it destroyed all of its chemical and biological weapons, and the intelligence officials acknowledged a lack of specific information about Saddam's weapons stockpiles.

Ivo Daalder, a Clinton administration National Security Council staffer, said the intelligence suggests a U.S. war on Iraq could lead to the very situation President Bush wants to prevent: Saddam attacking with weapons of mass destruction and wreaking havoc on his own people.

"I think Saddam has every incentive to make a war as horrible for anybody he can," he said. "The easiest target is not the American people, or the Israelis, the Saudis, or even our troops. It's his own people."

Saddam has been preparing for a war with the United States and its British allies almost since the Sept. 11 attacks, the intelligence officials said. But his military remains in worse shape than it was during the 1991 Gulf War, when U.S.-led forces crushed the vaunted Iraqi army.

Unlike the Gulf War, when Saddam engaged U.S. forces in the open desert along Iraq's borders, this time his military has prepared a multi-layered defense, with Baghdad at the center. Saddam isn't expected to put up much of a fight for large southern cities like Basra, instead preparing for urban fighting in his capital.

"But, since unlike the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Saddam has nothing to lose this time around, he might attack Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey and Iran with chemical and biological weapons", Iran News had warned. 

On the outermost ring is Saddam's war-weary regular army, with perhaps 275,000 troops. They are conscripts, short on training, spare parts and a will to fight, the officials said.

Iraqi air force, mostly old jet fighters, is regarded as a limited threat. But his air defenses, while old, remain capable of downing low-flying American warplanes, military experts say.

Some 80,000 to 90,000 troops in the Iraqi Republican Guard form the next layer of defense. They are better-equipped and trained, largely thanks to spare parts smuggled through Syria, the officials said.

Inside Baghdad are internal security forces, like the 10,000-strong Special Republican Guard, that are loyal to Saddam. They are lightly armed but present a threat as urban fighters who are less likely to flee or surrender, the officials said. ENDS SADDAM SCORCHED-EARTH PLANS 201202