IRAQI OPPOSITION HOPEFUL TO TOPPLE SADDAM HOSEYN
LONDON 15 Jul. (IPS) Exiled Iraqi officers meeting in London last week declaring their readiness to join "any effort to establish a new democratic federal regime, based on the rule of law and civil society" and promised they would not seek to replace him with another military regime.
The 60 former senior officers, several with the rank of general, avoided grappling with blueprints for overthrowing the president.
The meeting coincided with reports confirming that the Bush Administration is entering last stages of attack on Iraq, aimed at toppling the dictator of Baghdad.
Bush vowed last week to use "all tools" to oust Saddam, accused by Washington of trying to build weapons of mass destruction, but has yet to approve military action.
They said they would welcome "any foreign help" to get rid of Saddam Hoseyn's regime, and urged all Iraqi soldiers, inside and outside the country, to work together to achieve this aim.
It was the first time that so many defectors from the Iraqi army had been able to meet and talk freely.
The charter of honour commits the officers to abide by the decisions of the Iraqi people and to withdraw from political affairs once a change of regime occurs.
It says the future role of the army should be limited to "national defence and not [to] committing aggression".
After an opening session at Kensington town hall on Friday night, they moved for security reasons to a three-storey cube of black glass in Neasden, north London, next to a DIY superstore, which is rented by the Iraqi National Congress.
Sources at the meeting said that there was more agreement than many had expected.
Except some senior officers, no leaders from civilian parties or ethnics, including Kurds, were present.
Also the highest-ranking general in exile, Nizar al-Khazraji, who is understood to prefer rule by a military council when President Saddam is overthrown, was pointedly absent from the conference, which elected a council of 15, without a chairman or a leader but with Brigadier-General Tawfiq al-Yasiri as its spokesman.
The main issue debated was whether Iraq should have a federal system of government, which the Kurds strongly favour, because it would guarantee them a measure of autonomy.
The Turkoman representatives, and some others, urged that the decision on the system of government should be left to a referendum.
But the Kurds said a referendum immediately after the overthrow of President Saddam could inflame ethnic and sectarian rivalries.
Arab analysts said the document would probably attract middle-ranking officers in Iraq, but some in the highest ranks would not welcome its emphasis on democracy.
Major-General Najib al-Salhi, who headed a Republican Guards division and then became a member of Joint Chiefs of Staff before defecting in 1995, told Reuters he expected the Iraqi army to fold immediately if the United States attacked.
"Morale is at a disastrous level and the troops are sick of continuous war. Saddam will find himself surrounded by a few hundred soldiers," Salhi said confidently while sipping tea at an Iraqi restaurant in west London.
"The United States appears to be preparing all options, such as land war, covert operations, special forces...It will not need all of this," Salhi said, adding that the Iraqi army was a shadow of its strength before the 1991 Gulf War and had received no significant supplies since.
"The Iraqi army, Salhi said, was so divided along sectarian lines that it could not fight as unit".
He said Sunni Muslims from Takrit, the birthplace of Saddam in central Iraq, comprised almost all of the Special Republican Guard, entrusted with the personal protection of the president.
"The Shi'ites are mostly relegated to the infantry", said Salhi. "They will be the first ones to leave their posts and either join the advancing forces of go home."
Salhi dismissed U.S. concerns about Saddam's possible possession of chemical and biological weapons, saying the Iraqi leader did not have means to deliver such weapons.
The United States, Salhi said, must declare that it is only after Saddam and not his troops, otherwise it would not have support of the Iraqi people or the army.
"This cannot be two armies facing each other. The United States must make it clear that it is only after Saddam's head," Salhi said.
He forecast a scenario in which Saddam would be on the run, suggesting that U.S. aircraft policing the "no fly zones" could be used to back an advance on Baghdad by rebel forces from the north
Organisers said the meeting had several aims -- most important among them sending a message to military officers in Iraq encouraging them to prepare to support a U.S.-led effort to oust Hoseyn.
Several former officers in London said the Iraqi officer corps was rife with hatred for Hoseyn and could be persuaded to join a coup or invading force, provided they were guaranteed a future in a post-Hoseyn Iraq.
U.S. officials from several agencies, including the State Department, the Pentagon and Vice President Dick Cheney's staff, attended as observers. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Friday the United States was not financing the gathering, although it viewed the meeting as "a useful tool in helping the Iraqi community move closer to the goal of a better future for the Iraqi people after Saddam Hoseyn."
Also present was Crown Prince Hasan of Jordan, the uncle of King Abdullah II, but Jordan distanced itself from the gathering, saying Hasan's participation was an "individual act."
More recently, the Pentagon reportedly presented the White House with a plan for a full-scale military invasion involving as many as 250, 000 U.S. troops, operating from bases in as many as eight neighbouring countries.
Only about 50 former officers attended the meeting, well below the 90 organisers had announced in advance.
The US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, who was in Turkey for talks on the struggle against terrorism and the rebuilding of Afghanistan, said that Turkey would benefit from a regime change in Baghdad.
Mr Wolfowitz, speaking at a conference in Istanbul, said President Saddam's regime presented "a danger we cannot live with indefinitely".
Meanwhile, Saddam's son Uday, described by insiders as being "more dangerous than the father" has warned Iran not to take advantage of a possible US attack.
"The Iranians must not repeat the harm they inflicted on Iraq during the 1991 war and they must realise they cannot annex any inch of Iraq's land", he said in a statement on Saturday. ENDS IRAQI OPPOSITION 15702