TEHRAN, 23 May (IPS) Five years after the landslide victory of Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Khatami in the presidential elections of 23 May 1997, an astonishing triumph obtained on basis of promises of wide-ranging political, economic, social and cultural reforms, a great majority of Iranian political analysts have reached the conclusion that the reforms are dead and Mr. Khatami a "puppet" in the hands of ruling conservatives staunchly opposed to any substantial changes.

In his opinion expressed in interviews with Iran Press Service and the Persian service of the BBC, thanks to "repeated retreats" of Mr. Khatami and his allies, the conservatives have progressively strengthened their positions and are challenging the elected organs with the help of the regime’s appointed ones.

"The result is that five years after the people’s efforts and struggle, we are back to the square one. The (reform) movement has dramatically failed in such a way that I name the reforms defunct", he added.

After a few months of euphoria that followed Mr. Khatami’s surprising victory over a powerful rival in Hojjatoleslam Ali Akbar Nateq-Noori, the then Speaker of the Majles who was backed by the powerful conservatives and the very person of the leader of the regime, Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i, a period tagged as the "Islamic Republic’s spring" that saw the creation of tens of outspoken, popular newspapers and publications supporting the newly elected President’s promised reforms, and particularly the "opening of the mouths", the defeated, but ruling hard-line clerics called the shots and using the powerful Judiciary, slammed the doors on the reforms they denounced as "un-Islamic" and "contrary to Islamic principles".

In a highly emotional speech pronounced days before the presidential elections of 2001, Mr. Khatami, then at the height of his popularity, said during the last years of his first tenure of the presidency, he had encountered one obstacle (created by the conservatives) every nine days.

And some ten days ago, he said he would not stay in office even for a minute "if the government deviates a bit from the path of the revolution's goals and nation's reform movement", preserving, by stubbornness, fear of being suspended and defrocked, or a genuine belief in the conciliation between real democracy with Islam’s fundamental laws and orders, something he has coined as "religious democracy".

"Until Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Khatami do not come forward courageously, as some other younger clerics have done, calling for a separation between the state and the mosque, he would continue facing not one obstacle every nine days, but nine every day", Mr. Vaziri, a leading commentator pointed out.

"The reform movement has reached a decisive and vital crossroad in deciding whether the elected organs that are supported by the people’s vote are capable of reforming the frozen framework of the Islamic Republic’s or, on the contrary, the frozen framework has the power of killing the reforms and in doing so, open the way for great social upheavals and chaos outside the system", noted Mr. Ahmad Salamatian, a respected political analyst based in Paris.

Pro-reform personalities who have just founded a new political organsation party named "Defenders of the Second Khordad Message" (DSKM) say the reform movement is both "lasting and unstoppable, with or without Khatami".

"The Second Khordad was not only about electing a president, but also the uprising of a people tired of tyranny, economic, political, social and cultural pressures and hammer-like attitude of organs such as the Council of Guardians", Mostafa Kavakebian, the General Secretary of the DSKM told the Party’s first congress.

In a light criticism of the President, Mr. Kavakebian observed that the government was not successful in implementing social, cultural, political and economic democracy and warned that if the gap between the people and the regime is not filled, "the third current, wave or force or whatever name would take over, as this current is emerging inside the regime and by the young generation".

Mr. Hatam Qaderi, a professor of Political Science with Tehran University says taking into account Mr. Khatami’s electoral slogans such as civil society, rule of rationality in the government, responsibility to the people, rule of law and economic reforms, the President’s achievements are "very thin".

However, all analysts agrees in fairness that the five years of Khatami as president had some positive aspects, particularly for women and the young generation, the most important being the awakening of the people in regard to its aspirations and demands.

"That the Iranians have reached the conclusion that violence can not and should not be answered by violence is probably the most important achievement of Khatami’s years of presidency", says the Vienna-based Jamshid Barzegar, a political analyst and journalist.

Khatami was first elected president on May 23, 1997 with a hefty 69 percent of the vote, a margin that rose to 77 percent when he was re-elected in June

The legislative elections of February 2000 followed by that of cities councils were also a victories for both Khatami and the reformists who secured most of the seats in the Majles, making people, particularly the young, the students, women, intellectuals and the bulk of the people looking certain that promised reforms and changes would be implemented, despite opposition from the conservatives.

"The people wanted Khatami to face the hard-liners and were ready to back him if the conservatives resisted the reforms. But he chose to retreat instead of bargaining. The result is that he has lost all his trenches, encircled and besieged by his opponents", observed Mr. Sho’leh Sa’di.

The Expediency Council (EC) Chairman, Ayatollah Ali Akabar Hashemi Rafsanjani on Thursday that the survival of governments has depended on the clergies adding that "those who propose the old notion of the separation of religion and government and invite the clergy to go back to the seminaries are either traitors or ignorant of the realities of the Iranian society".

He also pointed out that any future government in which the clergy are considered an opposition would not survive.

"If we want to stay esteemed and keep up the nation's morale high like during the sacred defence period (Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988), the best choice is to let people rule freely on their own fate", the official news agency IRNA quoted him saying during a ceremony to mark the liberation of the port of Khorramshahr from the Iraqi invaders.

"This revolution said that we want an Islamic Republic; not an Islamic dictatorship and that all the components of the system should rely on the people's vote", Khatami added, citing the use of force and repression as "typical of dictatorial regimes which, by muzzling freedom of speech, ultimately make people resort to violent means".