HASHEMI RAFSANJANI HAS THE KEY TO THE IRANIAN CHAOS

PARIS, 11 Nov. (IPS)

In a commentary about the situation in Iran, and as students and popular protests against the death sentence imposed by the Judiciary on Mr. Hashem Aqajari, an outspoken Islamist thinker gets nation-wide, the French news agency AFP says besides Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’í, it is Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who keeps the other key to the present chaos.

“Still to play their cards are supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene’i and powerful former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- whose Expediency Council has the final say in disputes between parliament and the Guardians. Both have proved to be astute politicians in the past, leaving analysts insisting it is still "too early" to predict the outcome of the latest showdown”, AFP said in the commentary, filed from Tehran.

But contrary to some western diplomats the agency quotes, saying if Khatami resigns, there would be chaos and that it would harm Iran both at home and abroad, many Iranian analysts say “nothing would happen” and they doubt Khatami would resign.

Below is excerpts from the AFP’s commentary
“His allies are being arrested or condemned to death, and his dramatic bid to revive his stalled reform programme looks set to be shot down by his conservative opponents.

And with his popularity flagging, the question on the lips of analysts and diplomats is will Iran's embattled President Mohammad Khatami resign, or accept his lot as a lame duck leader?

“Now the mild-mannered cleric has tried to seize the initiative, presenting twin bills aimed at stopping hardliners weed out reformist candidates from standing in elections and enabling the president to challenge judicial rulings deemed to be more political than constitutional.

“Seen as a last-ditch attempt to rescue his presidency, which ends in 2005, Khatami's allies are now openly threatening a mass walk-out by reformists from the Islamic regime, and the president's resignation.

The conservative Council of Guardians, which vets all legislation from the parliament, has already signalled the bills will be binned.

"Imagine two cars heading straight for each other. What is important, is which of the two drivers, seized by fear, gives in first and turns the steering wheel to avoid an accident", wrote the hard-line “Resalat” newspaper in an editorial. "If driver A shows a determination that is on the verge of madness, driver B will have to give in".

“Khatami, first elected in 1997, has tried with little success to loosen up Iran's tightly-controlled economy and ease social restrictions, given that clerical hardliners continue to control the security forces, the courts and veto-wielding watchdog bodies like the Guardians' Council.

“His promise of "Islamic democracy" has also challenged the very foundation of the regime, still controlled by layer upon layer of right-leaning, un-elected clerics.

While diplomats and analysts insist the latest standoff is part of a tug of war between the Islamic republic's left and right that has played out ever since the 1979 revolution, most agree the crisis is nearing a climax.

"Khatami will have no choice but to resign if the two bills are rejected," commented political analyst Sa’id Leylaz, explaining that "if the conservatives accept the bills, it's the beginning of an uncontrollable process".

And he added: "These two bills have brought the two sides to a red line, and neither can make a concession. Above all, Iranian society no longer has the patience to support the impasse".

Sa’id Hajarian, a leading figure in the main reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), explained last week that Khatami has simply "burnt all the bridges behind him".

"If the bills are rejected, Khatami is in a position where he can either be a lame duck president, or resign and cause a massive crisis that could have unthinkable implications. He's in a no win situation", one European ambassador told AFP.

His resignation, another foreign diplomat said, would cause "very, very serious damage to Iran, both domestically and internationally. Khatami is well aware of that responsibility".

And while hardliners may be yearning to see the back of the reformists, the more pragmatic current of the conservative camp may be more open to compromise.

"Khatami and the reformists will be under enormous pressure to stay inside the system, especially with war looming in Iraq. Khatami is key to keeping Iran out of Washington's firing line," a foreign diplomat and long-time Iran watcher explained. ENDS IRAN STAND OFF 111102