TURKMEN PRESIDENT NIYAZOV SURVIVES ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT
ESHQABAD 25 Nov. (EURASIATNET-IPS) Saparmurat Niyazov, the mercurial president-for-life of the energy-rich Turkmenistan survived an assassination attempt on Monday 25 November, leaving several of the attackers dead and at least one bodyguard seriously wounded.

The attack occurred at around 7 a.m. in the center of Ashgabat, capital of the former Soviet republic ruled by Niyazov, who tolerates no opposition and has been named president for life by a compliant parliament that routinely rubber-stamps his proposals.

Niyazov said he had had not the slightest idea (of the attack) and was already at work when I was told a shootout was taking place". However, he added that all  the people involved in the attack have been arrested and are now giving evidence," he said.

Experts now expect Niyazov to intensify purges of security forces and other government agencies and tighten control over society.

According to various sources, the attack against Niyazov came as the president was traveling in a motorcade, making his way from his official residence outside Ashgabat to his presidential office. 

The semi-official Turkmenistan.ru said "unknown persons using automatic weapons" fired from several vehicles on the highway. Niyazov reportedly escaped unharmed, according to the sources. The web site said one police officer, a member of Niyazov's security escort, was seriously wounded during the exchange of gunfire.

The agency further indicated that at least two attackers were killed at the scene of the incident. The web site went on to say: "several of the criminals were taken into custody, the remaining ones [who escaped] succeeded in going into hiding."

Later in the day, Niyazov was reported to have identified the organizers of the attack as former Foreign Minister Boris Shikhmuradov, former deputy agricultural minister Saparmurat Yklimov, former Central Bank head Khudaiberdy Orazov, and the former Turkmen ambassador to Turkey, Nurmuhammed Khanamov. 

All are political opposition leaders living in exile. Efforts to reach Shikhmuradov for comment were not immediately successful.

Shikhmuradov has long been a wanted man by Turkmenistan, a country rich in natural gas and bordered by Afghanistan and Iran.

He was sent as ambassador to China after eight years as foreign minister, but in October 2001 was recalled to Ashgabat. He refused to return and instead moved to Moscow, where he became an outspoken critic of Niyazov.

Turkmenistan immediately launched a criminal case against him, charging him with stealing, among other things, five MiG fighter aircraft, over 11,000 Kalashnikov rifles, and millions of rounds of ammunition. It is still seeking his extradition.

Meanwhile, one source familiar with developments suggested that disgruntled security authorities and other officials within Turkmenistan may have had a hand in the operation. The source added that some opposition leaders were poised in neighboring states to make a quick return to Turkmenistan in the event the attempt had been successful.

Opposition to Niyazov's rule has grown over the past year, as several former high-profile political figures, including Shikhmuradov, have gone over to the opposition. Opposition leaders had been increasingly vocal in recent months about efforts to unseat Niyazov.

There is no active political opposition within Turkmenistan. However, Niyazov's recent actions have indicated that he is concerned about his grip on power, especially about the loyalty of security forces and other government institutions. Throughout the summer, Niyazov purged law-enforcement agencies of officials who apparently had been deemed unreliable.

Since Turkmenistan gained independence in 1991, Niyazov has built an all-encompassing cult of personality - going so far in 2002 as to rename the days of the week and the months of the year. Over the same period, Niyazov has relied on police repression to buttress his authority.

However, despite the recent purges, a significant number of Niyazov opponents remain in positions of authority, a source said. "There are lots of disgruntled people [within the government]," the source said. "Some were neutralized [by the recent purges]. Still, there are many who remain in senior positions". Indeed, such opposition was on the rise, driven in part by the perception within Turkmenistan that Niyazov's policy decisions are becoming increasingly unpredictable.

The failed assassination attempt will likely prompt Niyazov to broaden his purge of official structures. "There will probably be a massive crackdown," the source said. "It is a severe blow to the opposition."

News of the assassination attempt spread within Turkmenistan, even though the government maintains strict control over mass media outlets. Sources inside the country said that by the evening of November 25 there were no visible signs of tightened security, such as a larger than normal police presence, on the streets of major cities.

"We are afraid that in this case violence may beget violence. The last major public challenge to President Niyazov was in July 1995, when tens of protestors demonstrated peacefully in the capital, holding signs that called for democratic elections. Police and security agents broke up the demonstration forcibly and detained and arrested demonstrators", said Erika Dailey, director of the Turkmenistan Project of the New York-based Open Society Institute. Dailey added that those accused of organizing that 1995 protest were tortured and given jail sentences, and that one died of his injuries.

"If this was the outcome of a peaceful demonstration, we can only fear for the safety of individuals whom the government may detain in connection with the assassination attempt, whether they're guilty or not," Dailey said. "The main thing is to insure that the government uses legitimate law-enforcement practices to capture those responsible and does not use the attack as an excuse to launch a manhunt against dissidents."

The source said he expected Niyazov to become more insular in the assassination attempt aftermath. Already in 2002, the Turkmen leader has taken steps to isolate the country from outside influences. For example, Niyazov has issued decrees in recent months that closed the philharmonic orchestra and opera, as well as drastically curtailed educational opportunities.

Niyazov has ruled Turkmenistan as head of state since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and has developed a huge personality cult in his country. One of his official titles is Saparmurat Turkmenbashi the Great. Turkmenbashi means Leader or Father of all the Turkmen.

Niyazov's lengthy rule started in 1985 when he became communist party boss of what was then the Turkmen Soviet Socialist Republic.

Eshqabad, which has been largely rebuilt on a grandiose scale over the last few years, is festooned with billboards and statues of him.

One gold statue on top of a huge tower vaguely reminiscent of the Eiffel Tower revolves once every 24 hours so the figure of Niyazov can gaze continuously over the whole city.

It was under the name Turkmenbashi that he wrote his most famous book, "Ruhnama," a spiritual guide for Turkmens that he says was inspired by God. It is now compulsory in school from the age of 8, and is on the syllabus right through university.

Turkmenistan was one of the poorest republics in the Soviet Union but since independence has seen its economy grow on the back of the world's third-largest natural gas reserves and an important cotton industry.

The ca[ital was calm Monday evening. The atmosphere was little different from normal with the city tightly patrolled by police and soldiers, but with a slightly greater security presence outside the presidential palace. ENDS NIYAZOV ESCAPE ASSASSINATION 251102