TURKISH ISLAMIST PARTY WILL LEAD TURKEY

By an IPS Correspondent in Ankara

ANKARA 4 Nov. (IPS) The Justice and Development Party (JDP-AKP) won an overwhelming victory in the Turkish Sunday elections and quickly moved to soothe worries it would overturn Turkey's pro-Western stance into an Iranian-type Islamic Republic, sying it does not intend to "challenge the world".

This is the first time in 15 years that any party has been in a position to govern alone, largely due to voter fury over a devastated economy, and a widespread and generalised corruption as well as bickerings among aged politicians, according to analysts.

At a huge celebration at party headquarters, leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is banned from elections, said: "We will not spend our time dizzy with victory. We will build a Turkey where common sense prevails".

Vote tallies from Sunday's elections show that with 99 percent of the ballot boxes counted, Erdogan's party had 34 percent support, giving him 343 seat in the 555 members parliament. The center-left Republican People's Party had 19 percent.

As expected, neighbouring Iran, ruled by Ayatollahs since 1979, was one of the very first regimes to express satisfaction at the results from the Turkish elections.

Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters on Monday that Iran wished to be careful not to interfere in Turkey's internal affairs. “But, he said, Iran naturally welcomes an election win by a party that wants ties with Iran”.

Turks flocked to the polling booths Sunday to cast their votes in an election expected to bring a complete overhaul of the political landscape in the NATO member and European Union candidate country, the English language Turkish Daily News said on Monday.

Polling stations opened at 6:00 am (0400 GMT) in the east of the country and an hour later in the west, the difference due to daylight hours. They closed nine hours later.

As expected, the JDP, founded from the ashes of an Islamist party banned last year, took the lead almost hours after the opening of polling stations, followed by the social-democratic Republican People's Party (CHP). The first unofficial results indicated that AKP could muster a voter support of over 30 percent, sufficient enough to come to power alone, while the CHP may get over 20 percent support, making it the second largest group in Parliament.

Those who oppose the AKP fear it could undermine the foundations of the pro-Western, secular Turkish system and might bring tensions with the military, which considers itself the guardian of secularism. The military has carried out three coups since 1960.

AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the former pro-Islamic mayor of Istanbul, dismisses the Islamic label and calls his party a conservative, democratic party. His party has pledged its support for the country's bid to enter the EU and for an International Monetary Fund austerity program in Turkey, and has said that any U.S. action in Iraq should have U.N. approval.

Erdogan made no mention of religion during his campaign speeches. Although the AKP emphasizes it does not seek an Islamic agenda and says it espouses a pro-Western, conservative program, fears about its intentions were the main reason for many secularist groups to abandon apparently their own parties and to vote for the social democratic CHP in a bid to at least create a strong parliamentary opposition to a possible AKP government.

Casting his vote in his hometown Antalya Sunday, CHP leader Deniz Baykal repeated his warning that the nation "ought to think of the consequences" before casting votes. He said Turkey needed a strong government, but no tension.

Turkey's first Islamist-led government was driven from power in 1997 by an army-led campaign. Few expect that sort of turmoil after Sunday's vote, but certainly the secularist establishment would watch closely to see whether the AKP, if elected, kept religion out of its politics.

If the AKP maintains its 30 percent lead in the official final results, for the first time since 1991 Turkey could have a one-party majority government, analysts observed.

Many familiar figures, including Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, may be consigned to oblivion. The ailing, 77-year-old Ecevit has already signaled he will quit party leadership after the elections.

As the closing hours approached, it was obvious that all other parties were below the ten percent national threshold, required to become eligible to send deputies to Parliament. Only the Young Party (GP) of media-business tycoon Cem Uzan was coming closer to the ten percent threshold.

According to exit polls published by the TDN, many parties now in Parliament, including all three in Prime Minister Ecevit's coalition, were in danger of not getting enough votes to make it back in. A humiliating defeat of the mainstream parties could open the way to an overhaul in them.

The Democratic Left Party (DSP) of Prime Minister Ecevit was the leading party of the 1999 elections. Ecevit has said DSP's convention will meet in one years time and elect a successor for himself. An election defeat, however, could accelerate a leadership change in DSP, and force both the Motherland Party (ANAP) of Mesut Yilmaz and True Path Party (DYP) of Tansu Ciller to follow suit.

Turkey uses a complex system of proportional representation election system that favors large parties with support across the country at the expense of groups that may be strong in particular regions.

A total of over 41 million voters went to the polling booths Sunday to elect 550 members of the unicameral Parliament from 81 constituencies. Each district elects more than one MP with the number of seats based on population.

Voters chose parties, not individual candidates. Parties decide centrally how to allocate the seats they win among a list of candidates.

A vote threshold means that any party drawing less than 10 percent of the national vote is excluded from Parliament and its votes discarded, regardless of the result in individual constituencies.

In the 1999 elections, the founding party of the Republic, the CHP, which appears almost certain to come second in yesterday's vote, had remained below the threshold and could not enter Parliament for the first time in its history.

The voter support for AKP, founded last year mainly by lawmakers from a banned pro-Islamic party, came despite an election ban against its popular leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a prosecutor's attempt to close the party down.

In the latest legal move against the party, Supreme Court of Appeals Chief Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu has sought an injunction against Erdogan, as well as a ban on the party.

The Constitutional Court said on Friday it would give AKP 15 days to prepare a defence against a case to block him from being party head.

"I continue my duties as party chairman at this point. The Constitutional Court's decision is a very nice response to the mentality of those who want to cast a cloud over the election," Erdogan told reporters after a campaign stop.

He has already been barred from standing in the election because of a previous conviction for Islamist sedition, and cannot be prime minister. But he has remained party leader and spearheaded the party's campaign, declining to name a replacement.

The reluctance of the former Istanbul mayor to name a replacement and a row with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer last week over who would name the new prime minister of the country indicate that if the final results place AKP in a position to form a government alone, the country will live through some fresh controversies.

Traditionally, the president invites the leader of the party with the most seats to try to form a government. The situation, this time, however, will be complicated as for the first time in parliamentary history, the leader of the leading party will not be a parliamentarian, as Erdogan, who served four months of a 10-month jail sentence for Islamist sedition in the late 1990s, is banned from Parliament.

Erdogan walked with his wife from his flat in a conservative area of Istanbul to a school to vote. "We expect success, we expect a one-party government," he told Reuters. Supporters followed the ex-Istanbul mayor chanting "Erdogan -- prime minister".

Prime minister, however, is something that Erdogan, for all his personal popularity, cannot become, even if the AKP wins.

The ban on Erdogan -- who denies the Islamist label and portrays his party as pro-Western, pro-EU and backing the IMF pact -- means he cannot enter government in any capacity as according to the Constitution ministers should be chosen from within government or from the outside of Parliament among people who have the eligibility to become a parliamentarian. He would, however, exert power from behind the scenes. ENDS TURKISH ELECTIONS 41102