AFGHANISTAN CAN SLIP BACK TO CHAOS IF FOREIGN FORCES LEAVES

By an IPS Special Correspondent

KABOL 6 Oct. (IPS) As the Afghans prepared to celebrated the first anniversary of American military intervention that ended the brutal rule of the Taleban dismembered the al-Qa’eda organisation, many experts said unless Washington decides to stay for a very long period, there are serious risk that the war-shattered Asian nation slip back to chaos.

" What is needed now is a greater implementation of a political and economic strategy to strengthen the central government in Kabol and the economy. The real battle now needs to be fought on a different front", said Mr. Ahmad Rashid, an independent Pakistani journalist and expert on Afghanistan and Central Asian affairs, urging for a "significant change" in American’s strategy about Afghanistan.

Mr. Mostafa Danesh, an Iranian expert based in Germany agreed. "Considering that the Washington-installed Karzai government is very fragile and target of many plots from its two strong, but feuding neighbours, Iran and Pakistan, one cannot rule out the possibility of a return of the Taleban", he warned.

Hamid Karzai's administration remains fragile, a fact starkly underlined by the president's narrow escape from assassination in early September, and U.S. military operations have been reliant on unholy alliances with notorious regional warlords who, in the words of Mr. Rashid, benefits from the US "largesses" to weaken the Karzai government.

The inability of Mr. Karzai to control sporadic armed clashes between provincial leaders in recent months has raised doubts about its long-term viability.

Analysts say that unless central authority can be established nationwide, there is a danger of a new descent into factional rivalry and regionalism that would provide a breeding ground for the very extremism Washington has been trying to eradicate since the 11 September attacks last year on New York and Washington D.C.

With the whereabouts of both Ben Laden and the Taleban's supreme leader, Mollah Mohammad Omar still unknown and renegade, Tehran-backed warlord Golboddin Hekmatyar lurking in the wings, the government in Kabol remain under threat.

In a statement issued early this month, Mr. Hekmatyar’s Hezb Eslami renewed its pledge to "liberate Afghanistan from occupation forces" and acknowledged that it was seeking collaboration from the Taleban in this purpose.

"Hezb Eslami has always shown its willingness to join hands with patriotic and sincere Afghan groups to liberate the motherland from foreign occupation and to establish Islamic government in accordance with aspirations of Afghan people", the Iranian official news agency IRNA quoted the former Afghan prime minister and one time CIA operative as having promised.

The interim government on Sunday hailed the American military campaign as a "liberation" that had brought hope and opportunity to the war-torn country.

Foreign Minister Dr. Abdollah Abdollah, speaking Sunday at a news conference in Kabol ahead of Monday commemorations, said though the military campaign had supported the "liberation" of Afghanistan and was seen as such by most Afghans, but many challenges remained.

He said though the Afghan people had a long reputation for antipathy to foreign interference, yet "a unique opportunity has been created for the people of Afghanistan and we as Afghans should utilize this opportunity".

Abdollah said the government was working to improve security and national unity by bringing together regional leaders and military commanders to discuss the development of the still tiny national army.

"This is the right time for us and our partners to focus more inwards", he said, adding that the central government should be integrated throughout the country and establish its role throughout the nation".

Mr. Abdollah called on the international community to help the government in its efforts for the further stabilization of the situation by forming a national army.

He was referring to regional governors and rival warlords, such as the Iran-backed Esma’il Khan in the Western province of Heart or General Adbol Rashid Dostom, the governor of Mazar Sharif, who have appeared to want little to do with the central government in the capital and have concentrated on bolstering provincial power bases.

Mr. Abdollah also regretted that post-war reconstruction had been slow and observing that only small and medium-sized projects had so far got underway while no single major labour-intensive project has been started, he warned: "This is not a good situation for our people, as it affects the condition in security and other aspects". ENDS