"This illegal export, on which the Americans have closed their eyes, in the one hand helps Syria’s fragile economy and on the other hand, Mr. Saddam’s personal revenues", said Mr. Elias Sarkis, the Editor of the "Arab Oil and Gas Magazine".

"But ever since, a large part of Iraqi illegal oil exports, amounting to between 200.000 250.000 bpd, flows trough this route", one source told Iran Press Service.

Under the United Nations programme of Oil for Food, Baghdad is allowed to export 2.4 millions bpd, with part of it being bought by American companies.

Speaking at a press conference Wednesday at the Paris international press club "CAPE", Mr. Sarkis predicted that by toppling Saddam Hoseyn and installing in Baghdad a Karzai-type administration and increasing Iraq’s oil production, the United States would be in a position to reduce its dependence on the Saudi oil and play a more important role in the region".

"There is no doubt that oil is an important factor in the ongoing American efforts aimed at toppling Saddam Hoseyn and in such a likelihood, there is no doubt that American oil companies would be best placed in securing oil deals with the new Iraqi government", Mr. Sarkis said.

"I won’t be surprised to see European oil firms, mostly French, rejected from future Iraqi oil contract in favour of American giants as seen in Kuwait after the 1990 Gulf War", said Mr. Sarkis, who is also the Director of the Paris-based Arab Centre for Oil Studies.

Ousting the regime of Iraqi President and replacing it with one more friendly to Washington would give the United States greater influence over energy politics and supplies in the Persian Gulf, which holds about two-thirds of the world's proven oil reserves. But such a turn of events also could trigger instability in neighbouring Iran, and this is what worries Europe, analysts said.

According to present estimates, Iraq’s reserves stands at between 112 to 220 billions barrels, placing the country right after Saudi Arabia, and its present production of near 3 millions barrels per day (bpd) could be "easily" increased to 6 millions bpd within three to four years.

"This is a tremendous important cart for pressing other oil producers to be receptive to American and Western consumers demands", Mr. Sarkis said, referring to the possibilities of increasing Iraqi production in order to compensate for Saudi oil.

He said though America has large reserves of energy, but American administrations prefer to rely on imported oil, mostly the Persian Gulf region, where the cost of production is cheaper.

"It is easier for the Americans to kick people arses in the Middle East rather to accept sacrifices by developing their own, but expensive oil reserves", Mr. Sarkis pointed out, quoting a former American official.

Asked about the possible impact on oil prices in case the US attacks Iraq, Mr. Sarkis said it all depends on the duration of the operations. "Other factors, like the possibility to see some oil and petrochemical installations in the region set afire, would also have impact on the prices", he added.

On retreating from Kuwait under heavy American and allied bombardment, the Iraqi exploded most of the emirates oilfields.

He doubted that the Caspian basin could match the Persian Gulf as far as oil is concerned. "The estimates we have for the region are not exact and in any case, even if it is true that the region has some 200 billions of reserves, it will take decades before they are fully developed", he observed. ENDS OIL AND IRAQ WAR 21002