IRAN ATTEMPTS TO DERAIL IRAQI FREEDOM

By Shaheen Fatemi
PARIS 16 Apr. The overthrow of Saddam's dictatorial regime in Iraq is an obvious source of joy for all decent people everywhere. The steadfast policies and performance of President Bush and his team in face of all obstacles deserve praise and recognition. This courageous act has hopefully laid the corner stone for a new order in the Middle East. Getting rid of regimes such as the Talebans in Afghanistan or Saddam in Iraq, in and by themselves, are considered significant service to the cause of humanity, human rights and democracy.

But recent history has many examples of short-lived "springs of freedom" and high jacked "liberations". The question on most peoples' minds today is what's next for Iraq and the region? Will this short and successful war lead to the founding of a democratic government and society in Iraq? Will the Iraqi people who have paid so dearly with their lives and lost opportunities for more than three decades become truly free at last? Will they finally get a chance to develop their own democratic institutions and not fall into the abyss of religious demagogies and ethnic divisiveness?

Looking at the situation from a distance, in spite of all wishful thinking; the odds do not seem to favour the prospects of a peaceful and democratic Iraq in the foreseeable future. The heritage left from the fascist regime of Saddam and his Baa'th party is not exactly the right foundation upon which one can easily build a free and democratic society. Decades of brutal suppression of religious and ethnic communities have created a massive reservoir of pent-up resentments, which may explode in a volcanic manner. Managing all this and sailing through minefields of many other complicated hazards might yet prove far more difficult than winning the War.

One major dark factor threatening the prospects of peace and democracy in Iraq is the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). Its record of sabotages, intrigues, plots; murders, assassinations and obstructionist conspiracies in Afghanistan could be pointed to as a minor sample of what may be in store for Iraq. Two of its notorious protégés: Golboddin Hekmatyar in Eastern Afghanistan and Esma’il Khan in Heart, have been and continued to be a major source of trouble and potential threat to the Karzai government.

The leaders of IRI did not like what happened in Afghanistan and have tried to defeat it at every step so far. They may have had their own disagreements with the Talebans at times, but what they wanted to see in Afghanistan was a puppet regime headed by someone like Rabani who would continue to suppress the basic rights of the people of and in particular the Afghani women. In other words, they were after a weak 'satellite' regime in place of the Talebans without any role for Mohammad Zaher Shah. The post-9/11 world changed all that and the IRI was left with very little room to manoeuvre.

However, in comparison to what's at stake in Iraq, for IRI Afghanistan was only a sideshow. Iraq is where the very future of IRI is being decided. They knew well that Afghanistan, as a poor and relatively less developed country, would not be able to progress fast enough to a point that it could constitute a potential model for democratic change in the region. Afghanistan is also to the east of Iran and has China and Pakistan as its other neighbors, neither of them candidates for the democratic prize of the year!

The Mollahs in Iran fully realise that the success of the project "Iraqi Freedom" is a real threat to the longevity of their regime in Tehran. They know better than any one else how little support they have among the Iranian public. If they needed any further evidence of their lack of popularity after the recent fiasco of Gallup-sponsored poll which gave Mr. Khameneh’i less that 2% (two percent) support and the municipal elections of last month with less than 12% participation in Tehran, must have removed any doubts in their minds.

The successful Coalition overthrow of the unpopular and dictatorial regimes in two neighbouring countries is such a clear handwriting on the wall that even the illiterate clergy can read it. Their propagandists in Iran were predicting failure for the U.S. and cheering the imaginary "resistance" of Saddam's forces till the very end.

But now that they have been caught by surprise, they will do their best to create problems for the Coalition forces. We should expect far more sabotage plots than before because now the Islamic regime is truly desperate! Additionally, they are far better equipped to create problems in Iraq with total anonymity and impunity.

As we have already witnessed with the "mysterious" assassination of Hojjatoleslam Majid Kho’i on the grounds of Imam Ali Mosque in Najaf, "enemies" of the IRI in Iraq will be facing sudden death and annihilation from this point on. In addition to the thousands of hired agents that they have infiltrated into Iraq, they have the Iraqi exile groups that have been maintained all these years and now will be returned to Iraq as an ally and accomplice of IRI leadership.

While the current attention of Washington seems to be rightly focused on Syria, it will be the Iranian regime, which will cause most of the difficulties for the Americans and the Coalition forces from now on. Already they have begun their inflammatory propaganda with the Arabic language Hezbollah satellite TV station as well as direct broadcasts from Iran into Iraq. As time goes on they will try to agitate the public against the Western forces by appealing to the Iraqi nationalism and religious sensitivities of the population.

They will attempt to foment riots and rebellions throughout Iraq and in particular among the Shiaite population in the South. Unless they receive the same stern U.S. government warnings as the Syrians have, very early in the game, things may get out of hand. The leadership of IRI knows very well that the events in Iraq have become a source of inspiration for the Iranian masses in their own struggle against the religious fascism, which has dominated Iran for the past twenty-five years. The regime's top priority mission is to damage the prospects of the U.S. led "Iraqi Freedom" mission. ENDS IRAQ FREEDOM 16403

Editor’s note: Mr. Shaheen Fatemi is a senior professor of Economics at the American University of Paris. A veteran Iranian political analyst, he is also the editor of the Paris-based Iran Va Jahan (Iran and the World) internet website.

The above article was published by Iran Va Jahan on its 15 April issue.

Editorial work, highlights and some phonetisations of names are by IPS.