AN UNSUSTAINABLE STATUS QUO

Some are impatient for regime change.

Others just want the regime to change.

But few think the status quo is sustainable.

LONDON, 22 Jan. The seemingly calm and normal situation in Iran does not disguise the reality that a storm of great magnitude is in the making that could reshape the future of the country and seriously alter the status quo.

The internal crisis within the country, which had been brewing for a number of years, was put on hold, as people desperate to avoid the uncertainties of another social upheaval placed their hopes on the presidency of Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Khatami that has unfortunately fallen greatly short of all expectations.

In the wake of Khatami’s failure, the only remaining option for the Islamic Republic of Iran is a total take over by those seeking shelter under the guise of preserving the legacy of the Grand Ayatollah Roohollah Khomeini.

But both they and the people are fully cognizant of the reality that such a move will only advance the interests of a ruling few, whose incompetence and despotism has completely shattered any credibility which the Islamic Revolution may have had in its earlier years.

In these circumstances, it is ironic that while Khatami has desperately sought to avoid becoming an "Iranian Gorbachev", his hard line adversaries should nonetheless contemplate to succeed where Gorbachev’s orthodox foes failed in the August 1991 coup to remove him from office in the hope of protecting their vested interest in a Soviet Union that was dominated by communist bosses and their cronies.

However, the similarities do not end here. Just as the Soviet Union was doomed to eventually give way to the will of the people it had brutalized for over 70 years, the ultimate alternatives for the IRI - whichever way it chooses to go -- cannot be much different.

A post "9,11" change that has taken shape in the international arena further exacerbates this inevitable fate. Led by the United States, the prosecution of the "War on Terrorism", which has already resulted in the removal of the Taleban in Afghanistan, has acquired a life and momentum of its own. To sustain this momentum - which is perhaps as much a domestic policy issue as it is a foreign policy one in the US -, halting the advance of the "Axis of Evil" regimes is seen as a crucial step in curtailing the forward momentums of both international terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Although the strategy for combating these two scourges of early 21st century international politics in each of these cases may not be the same, the priority for promoting regime change seems like a growing concern.

So, while Saddam Hoseyn is currently feeling the full force of this determined effort for the promotion of a different agenda in Iraq, other dictatorships - named or unnamed - are equally concerned about the impending pressures that will almost certainly put their durability to test.

It is a fact that all the raised eye brows and cries of criticism that have been voiced in certain international circles to mock the Bush statement about Iraq, Iran and North Korea, fail to give adequate recognition to the extent of domestic unpopularity that surrounds these targeted regimes for the simple reason that they have inflicted so much needless pain and suffering on the lives of their own people.

Therefore, while these quarters, particularly those in Europe, may look with intellectual disdain at the direction of policy that is being steered from Washington, there is little doubt that in the minds of many Iranians - as well as Iraqis, North Koreans, Syrians and Libyans - that any firm message being advocated against the IRI is the only recipe which can lead to what all Iranians truly want: namely a true and meaningful change in the policies and the politics of their leaders so that they may bring to an end almost a quarter of a century of misrule, chaos and uncertainty. ENDS STATUS QUO 22103