Anti-American protests in Iraq, such as the April 28 incident in Fallujah that left an estimated 15 Iraqis dead, should not come as a surprise to Washington. Most Iraqis don’t share the US vision of a reconstructed Iraq resting on a foundation of Western-style democracy. For many, the end of Saddam Hoseyn’s regime has prompted a yearning for a religious and cultural revival, raising the prospect of an Islamic state based on conservative Shiite beliefs.

It is also possible, however, that the revival may travel down the road towards Islamic extremism, anti-Westernism and sectarian violence that could easily culminate in a new dictatorship.

The lack of a cohesive American post-war political and economic strategy for Iraq -- coupled with the arrogance of the Bush administration and Washington’s disregard for a historical perspective – is diminishing the chances for the development of a secular democratic government in Iraq.

The country is now developing into a battleground between Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims, who both seek to fill the leadership void created by the quick collapse of Saddam’s regime.

Iraq is a majority Shi’ite state that was ruled by a small sect of nominally Sunni Muslims under Saddam. Apart from the Kurdish resistance in northern Iraq, Shi’ite religious leaders provided the only form of underground opposition to Saddam during Iraq’s long night. Practically the only institutional dissent that could withstand Saddam’s ruthless persecution came from mosques.

Shi’ite Islam, as compared to Sunni Islam, is more hierarchical, disciplined and political. Just as in Central Asia, where an underground Islam kept people spiritually alive and connected during the Soviet era, so in Iraq the mosques quietly provided people with a spiritual haven and an alternative to the Ba’ath Party for political expression.

Iraq’s exiled political leadership favoured by the Americans has little standing in the country – not because they are secular, but because they are perceived to be out of touch with the country’s current mood and conditions. They are also seen to be too dependent on the support of foreign occupation forces, namely the US Army.

Many urge unity among Shi’ites and Sunnis, and call for the protection of minority rights, including those of the Kurds. They also want a freely elected government, in large part because Shiite leaders know that, in a free and fair election, they would be well positioned to govern.

There is also a possibility that the Shi’ite religious revival could produce pressure for the creation of an Islamic state. Such a development would likely to be vigorously opposed by Sunnis, with encouragement from Iraq’s Sunni Arab neighbours. Many Sunnis feel uncomfortable about the prospect of a Shiite Iraqi state, especially one with close ties to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is also dominated by Shi’ites.

Editor’s Note: Ahmed Rashid is a journalist and the author of "Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia" and "Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia."

He contributed the above commentary to EurasiaNet, which published it on 30 Apr.

Highlights, editing and phonetisation are by IPS