Why, after all, in a country widely seen as the most earthquake-prone in the world, do these tragedies frequently recur? But such criticism must not cloud the bigger picture: A strong earthquake is likely to hit Iran’s capital, Tehran, in the near future. The implications are almost too calamitous to contemplate. Not least, it could threaten the very survival of the authorities being blamed for not doing enough to lessen the human costs of such disasters.

According to Taheri, the turmoil that ensued after ex-Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s ouster enabled swindlers to seize large chunks of land in Bam, on which poorly constructed houses and shops were built. Taheri added that the deals were backed by fatwa-issuing clerics who in turn received a healthy slice of the profits. Yet he provided not a shred of evidence to buttress these allegations.

Arguably, David Aaronovitch, writing in "The Guardian" on 30 December, delivered the best piece of political commentary. Extolling the virtues of American masonry and the value put on human life in the US, Aaronovitch noted that the earthquake that recently hit California with almost the same intensity as the Bam quake killed only 2 people. Despite his insight, however, Aaronovitch’s closing comment, "Some Iranians might think that it’s a shame there wasn’t a McDonald’s in Bam. It would have been the safest place in town," was as facile as it was inappropriate.

None of this, of course, must detract attention from apportioning blame justly. The earthquake not only snuffed out tens of thousands of lives, it destroyed one of the features of Iranian civilization: Bam’s ancient citadel, known as the Arg, was initially built under the Sassanian Dynasty. It now lies in ruins. Defenses could have been erected to safeguard these ancient fortifications in the event of a major natural disaster. Bam had, after all, suffered three major quakes in the 20th century.

But the real challenge for Iran is far more menacing. What happened in Bam could occur on a far larger scale in Tehran. In February 2003, a seminar on construction was held in the capital, during which Mohsen Ghafouri Ashtiyani, the head of the International Seismological Research Centre, which is affiliated with the Science Ministry, made a stark warning that the fault lines around Tehran were sliding and accumulating energy. He made an ominous prediction: "There is a strong likelihood of an earthquake striking the Iranian capital … On the basis of the studies, the probability of a quake above seven degrees on the Richter scale in the next 10 years currently stands at 65 percent, and this is expected to increase with the passing of time."

The experts could have cited the example of Mexico City when discussing damage limitation. The city suffered an earthquake in 1985 that claimed 10,000 lives. Subsequently the city implemented some of Latin America’s toughest building codes. Interestingly, on New Year’s Day an earthquake that hit off the Mexican coast was strongly felt in Mexico City. No major destruction was reported.

Despite dire warnings of an impending disaster in Tehran, the authorities have done virtually nothing. This not only shows a breathtaking disregard for human life and property, it could also prove to be bad politics. Tehran is, after all, the undisputed political and economic center of Iran. A massive earthquake there could potentially collapse literally and symbolically the institutions of the Islamic Republic.

Editor’s note: Mr. Mahan Abedin, a London-based financial consultant and analyst of Iranian politics, wrote this commentary for the Beirut-based "The Daily Star".

Highlights and some editing are by IPS.