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As of January 2009, this site is definitely closed, but you can follow Safa Haeri on his new blog: DAMAVAND at http://wwwdamavandsafa.blogspot.com

The Khomeini letter: Is Rafsanjani warning the hardliners?

Published Friday, October 13, 2006



Los Angeles, 14 Oct. (Iranian.com) A written correspondence between the late Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and the then commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), Mohsen Reza’i, has given some insight into why Iran accepted a ceasefire with Iraq in 1988.

The correspondence has caused much debate and speculation inside and outside Iran. Published by the office of former Iranian president Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani some ten days ago, it reveals that Khomeini had been advised by Reza’i that the war was not winnable.

Mr. Reza’i is now the Secretary of the Assembly for Discerning the Interests of the State (ADIS, or the Expediency Council) which is chaired by Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani.

While Western observers have focused on a single sentence in the letter referring to nuclear weapons, the letter has sparked fierce debate inside Iran.

While Western observers have focused on a single sentence in the letter referring to nuclear weapons, the letter has sparked fierce debate inside Iran for a very different reason.

“No victories are in sight for the next five years”, Reza’i’s letter to Khomeini reads. “If we become able to organize 350 infantry brigades, purchase 2,500 tanks, 3,000 cannons, and 300 war planes, and be able to manufacture laser and nuclear weapons which are nowadays among the necessities of modern warfare, then, God willing, we can think of offensive war activities”.

Western media attention has focused on the segment insinuating the IRGC commander’s desire to obtain a nuclear weapon. By doing so, Western audiences have missed critical nuances that are emerging from Iran’s internal debate on the nuclear issue.

Inside Iran, little attention has been paid to the letter’s reference to nuclear weapons. Some attribute this to Iran’s invisible red lines on discussing topics that could jeopardize Iran’s negotiating position in the current nuclear stand-off. Another and perhaps more probable explanation is that the Iranian public generally understands that the late Ayatollah did not take Rezai’s desire for more advanced weapons seriously.

The Khomeini letter: Is Rafsanjani warning the hardliners?-Body

Reza’i’s statements seem to be treated as hyperbole by the Ayatollah. “We need to double the military and increase the IRGC seven fold, and even evict the Americans from the Persian Gulf (which we cannot) [in order to defeat the Iraqis]; nonetheless, we have to continue the war”, Reza’i wrote. Khomeini’s comments were brief but conclusive. “This is nothing but sloganeering,” he responded.

Government-imposed censorship has prevented a public debate on the war to determine why it was permitted to drag on for over eight years. The issue was raised by both reformers and journalists like Akbar Ganji during the tenure of President Mohammad Khatami, but their efforts to address the issue were blocked. The publication of the letter occurred as the blame game once again was flaring. The purported differences between Mohsen Rezai and Rafsanjani seem to contribute to this altercation.

Arch conservatives in Iran have accused Rafsanjani of “illegal disclosure of the country’s secrets”, going as far as accusing him of “treason”. President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad, whose hostility to Rafsanjani is well known, commented on the letter by saying that “some people” were trying to endear themselves to foreigners. This view enjoys support even among reformists, who found the timing of the publication self-serving.

Hashemi Rafsanjani, who Khomeini assigned to command the war towards its end, continues to have access to many of Iran’s state secrets. Publicizing the letter, his critics argue, serves many of the former president’s interests.

The letter, anyhow, reveals that Reza’i was responsible for putting an end to the war and not Rafsanjani.

On the one hand, the letter reveals that Reza’i was responsible for putting an end to the war and not Rafsanjani. (Rafsanjani has on many occasions been criticised by Iranian war veterans for having ended the war in Iran’s disfavor.) On the other hand, some argue the letter is a publicity stunt aimed at raising Rafsanjani’s profile in the wake of his likely candidacy to the Assembly of Experts.

A highly contested election, the Assembly of Experts is in charge of electing and supervising Iran’s Supreme Leader. The arch conservative Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, a key supporter of President Ahmadi Nezhad, is rumored to be seeking to take control of this body. As such, the publication of the letter may be part of the ongoing rivalry between the arch-conservatives and the pragmatists around Rafsanjani.

Yet a more salient interpretation, suggested by some observers inside Iran, is that Rafsanjani publicized the letter to warn firebrands in the Iranian government not to take the risk for a US-Iran war lightly. The letter shows that the leader of the Iranian revolution succumbed to the realities of war and peace and chose to compromise in order to avert an even greater disaster.

As such, the letter sends a clear signal to Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’i and President Ahmadi Nezhad – who may feel they have invested too much of their prestige in developing nuclear technology – that the war machine can be stopped if Iranian leaders recognize Iran’s limitations and seek a compromise with the West.

The Khomeini letter: Is Rafsanjani warning the hardliners?-Body-2

Abbas Abdi, a leading reformer echoed this view. “If the war against Saddam needed such a large sum of weapons and equipment, just imagine how much logistics, weaponry, and [what size] economy is needed to fight those who defeated Saddam in [less than] a month”, he wrote. (Abdi, Abbas, Chand nokteh hashiei dar bareh nameh emam).

Seyyed Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former adviser to President Khatami and outspoken critic of the policies of President Ahmadi Nezhad, sought to turn attention to the message of the letter rather than its publication.

“The courage to accept the reality is no less than the courage of fighting a war,” he wrote of Rafsanjani’s message in publicizing the letter. “Let’s discuss Imam [Khomeini’s] realistic [turn about] rather than why a secret of the state has been revealed”. (Abtahi, Seyyed Mohammad Ali, Dar bareh enteshar nameh emam tavassot Hashemi).

At a minimum, the revelation of the correspondence has paved the way for a debate on this most critical issue as it reveals Iran’s diversity of views on the nuclear issue. The publication of the letter by a former president and by Iran’s media is highly significant. It demonstrates that there is a whole segment of Iran’s leadership structure at the highest levels and within the population that may oppose engulfing Iran in a conflict with the US. Absent direct talks between the US and Iran, it will likely remain difficult for the United States to understand these Iranian dynamics and it will delay Washington’s ability to influence Iran’s internal debates. ENDS KHOMEINI LETTER 131006

Editor’S note: Mr. Nafisi is a well known Iranian scholar and political analyst based in the United States.

The above article was posted by “Iranian.com”, one of Iranian’s most popular and versatile online publications on 11 October 2006.

Some editing and highlights are by IPS

 

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As of January 2009, this site is definitely closed, but you can follow Safa Haeri on his new blog: DAMAVAND at http://wwwdamavandsafa.blogspot.com


The Khomeini letter: Is Rafsanjani warning the hardliners?-Main
Iranian leadership fought each other about the publication of letter showing how Khoeini accepted to drink the cup of poison and dend Iran Iraq War.



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