Latest ArticlesArchivesForumsRSS FeedGuestbookContact UsSearch


Iran Press Service (logo)


As of January 2009, this site is definitely closed, but you can follow Safa Haeri on his new blog: DAMAVAND at http://wwwdamavandsafa.blogspot.com

In Dealing With Iran, The West Must Talk to Khameneh’I, Not Ahmadinejad

Published Sunday, March 2, 2008



WITH the release of America's National Intelligence Estimate, according to which Iran has suspended its nuclear weapons programme, the prospect of military confrontation with the Bush administration dimmed. But months later, it is clear that the danger is not past, because Iran has not renounced the production of nuclear weapons, which its enriched uranium could eventually be used to fuel.

Western diplomacy in recent years has focused on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as the key to resolving the crisis. But this approach is a blind alley, because he is not the one who decides.

All parties need to find a formula to resolve the issue before it again threatens to erupt into conflict. Western diplomacy in recent years has focused on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as the key to resolving the crisis. But this approach is a blind alley.

Let us recall the fate of Ahmedinejad's two immediate predecessors. Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) tried to implement dramatic political reform, while Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-97) tried to open the Iranian economy to the West. Both failed, because Iran's presidents do not run the country. A solution to the nuclear dilemma - or any other problem in Iran's foreign relations - is in the hands of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’i.

Among his responsibilities, Khameneh’i serves as commander-in-chief of the military, controls the intelligence services and appoints directors of the national media. His appointees effectively control most ministries and Iran's major cities.

In diplomacy, Khameneh’i tends to operate in a clever but recognisable fashion. He sends different diplomats into negotiations with contradictory instructions. Each claims to be acting with the supreme leader's full authority, but ultimately are unable to make commitments because they have little idea of what Khamenei wants to do. After a time, they are removed and a new set of representatives is dispatched.

In order to dominate decision-making, Khameneh’i prefers weak presidents. Ahmedinejad is no different. His political base has faded, owing to Iran's deepening economic crisis, which has been intensified by the conflict with the West over the nuclear issue. His support in the parliamentary election next March seems particularly weak, which will no doubt please Western observers. But the election results will not matter: parliament, too, has little influence over Iran's foreign policy.

Some Western diplomats recognise the supreme leader's role. In practice, however, Western diplomacy tends to ignore Khameneh’i, who sabotages any effort to get around him as the final arbiter of Iranian policy. This might partly explain why Khameneh’i has been mistrustful of negotiations with the West. Westerners don't seem to understand who is in charge. Indeed, some analysts argue that former President Bill Clinton's efforts to achieve a breakthrough with Iran failed because they were addressed to Iran's presidents.

Ahmadinejad-11
The "President" in the political system of the Islamic Republic of Iran has less power than a prime minister in France.

The West should learn from the example of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who did not travel to Iran until he was allowed a direct meeting with Khameneh’i, during which Putin is reported to have made a proposal to end the nuclear stand-off. There has been no answer yet, though there does seem to be some recent movement between Russia and Iran on the provision of nuclear fuel for Iran's controversial reactors.
To be sure, Khameneh’i is reluctant to meet non-Muslim foreign leaders. But that shouldn't stop the West from reaching out to him directly or pressing him to publicly appoint the representatives who negotiate with the West.

One American politician who understands how to work with the Iranian power structure is former Congressman Lee Hamilton, now head of the Woodrow Wilson Centre. When Wilson Centre researcher Haleh Esfandiari was arrested in Iran, Hamilton wrote to Khameneh’i, pleading for her release on humanitarian grounds. Khameneh’i responded - reportedly the first time he answered an American - and Esfandiari was released in a matter of days.

Khameneh’i would be hard-pressed to ignore a direct invitation from the US to negotiate on Iran's most vital concerns. His clear priority is the Islamic republic's survival, not the fate of particular Iranian politicians. While Ahmedinejad's apocalyptic vision makes it difficult for Westerners to deal with him, Khamenei does not want to stumble into a military confrontation with the West, which would destabilise Iran and possibly lead to the regime's downfall.

To resolve outstanding issues with Iran, the West should be dealing with the only person powerful enough to make deals and deliver concessions. That person is Khameneh’i, not Ahmedinejad. ENDS KHALAJI ON KAMENEH’I 4308

Editor’s note: Mr. Mehdi Khalaji, a political analyst and former journalist, is a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East policy. He studied for 14 years in seminaries in Qom, Iran.This article was syndicated by Project Syndicate and posted by the Paris-based Iranian site Iran va Jahan (Iran And the World).Highlights are by IPS

 

 

Comments

3 comment(s) on this page. Add your own comment below.

fariborsm
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 20:57 [ 1 ]

Do you mean President Bush should better fix a date with the leader of the Islamic revolution? And then travel simply to the Islamic Repiblic? To say that the United states of Ameica wish the same conditions and possibilities in Iran as before 1978? Greeting

RBRK
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 23:23 [ 2 ]

IN DEALING WITH IRAN, U.S. AND IRANIANS MUST GET RID OF MULLAHS LIKE KHAMENEI AND RAFSANJANI THE WAY ISRAELIS DO.

Ali Shaker
Friday, March 7, 2008 22:56 [ 3 ]

This is all a waster of time to me. First, the US must apologize for its disorderly conduct in regards to Iran for the last few years. Secondly, they must abide by the NPT and start to dismantle their own goddamn nuclear weapons, along with Israel and everyone else for that matter. And no more "Military confrontation" nonsense, who the hell does the US think they are? Right, we know who they are. But, Iran will will give'em the wippin they deserve so bad.

Comments on this page are closed.



As of January 2009, this site is definitely closed, but you can follow Safa Haeri on his new blog: DAMAVAND at http://wwwdamavandsafa.blogspot.com


Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i-2
Ayatollah Khameneh'i is the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. It is he who decide on every major issue, not the President, as the Westerners tend to think.




Powered by the Big Medium content management system. sitemap xml